Colorado State vs. Memphis 2025 March Madness First Round Best Bet

Not that the pundits were wrong to put Colorado State (25-9 SU, 18-13 ATS) front and center on their list of Cinderella candidates for this year’s NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. They might be the 12-seed in the West Regional, but the Rams are better than Memphis on paper, and the Tigers arrive at the Big Dance with questions surrounding the health of their top prospect, senior guard Tyrese Hunter (ankle).

Which makes Memphis the live dog in this matchup. And here we are making contrarian March Madness picks on a No. 5 seed in the opening round. We’re not alone, judging by these early line moves on the NCAAB odds board; let’s see if there’s any betting value left to scoop up as we go to press.

Is Tyrese Hunter Playing?

We don’t know. Tigers head coach Penny Hardaway says his star point guard is questionable for Friday’s contest, after Hunter hurt his left foot during Saturday’s AAC Tournament semifinals. He was seen on crutches with a walking boot shortly afterwards, and still had the boot on while he sat out Sunday’s final.

Hardaway told reporters Tuesday that Hunter was going to need “prayer and then some” to be ready for the First Round. But maybe this situation isn’t as dire as it looks. Back-up point guard Dante Harris is said to be making good progress after suffering a high-ankle sprain on March 4; Harris was able to shed his walking boot for those last two games at the AAC tourney.

There’s a considerable drop-off in offensive talent between these two guards, but Harris makes up for it somewhat on the defensive end – as does Baraka Okojie, who was elevated to the starting lineup for Sunday’s 84-72 title-clinching win over UAB (+3). And as useful as Hunter would be for Memphis this Friday, he’s maybe their third-best player behind the 1-2 punch of sophomore guard PJ Haggerty and senior forward Dain Dainja.

What About the Rams?

They’re pretty good. Colorado State won the Mountain West title, sweeping their three tournament games SU and ATS – and as discerning college hoops fans are well aware, the MWC is the best of the mid-majors right now. It won’t be in 2026 after the Rams and four other teams leave for the Pac-12, but for 2024-25, the Mountain West (plus-6.61 SRS) ranks sixth overall on the Simple Rating System charts at Sports Reference, well ahead of the AAC (plus-1.26 SRS) in ninth.

Ken Pomeroy has Colorado State ranked No. 42 overall in efficiency, a shade less than two points per 100 possessions ahead of No. 51 Memphis. The Rams like to keep it mellow at about 66.0 possessions per game (No. 245), and the Tigers might be slower than their usual 70.8 possessions (No. 27) given their point guard situation. Speaking of which…

The Pick

There’s an argument to be made that Hunter’s impact is being over-valued here. We’re working with slim potential profit margins as it is with this matchup, so keep that bet size small, but the value is indeed with this plucky Memphis team fighting from underneath. Bet accordingly.

NCAAB Pick: Memphis +2 (-113) at BetOnline

Memphis +2 (-113)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.