Colts vs. Vikings Sunday Night Football Picks: Can Joe Flacco Get It Done?

The Colts announced that starting quarterback Anthony Richardson has been benched and veteran Joe Flacco will start in his place. Frankly, it’s a surprise Richardson didn’t get benched during Sunday’s loss against Houston. But after he finished that game, you had to think his job was secure for this week.

But that’s not the case. Now Flacco gets a shot at a Minnesota defense that started so hot but has struggled in consecutive losses. It’s hard not to argue that Flacco gives the Colts a better chance to win this game than Richardson would, so it could be a good one.

The Vikings are a 5-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points at top-rated sportsbooks. Well, it’s not like the Colts can blow a record 33-point lead in this one like they did in 2022 against the Vikings, right?

What Does Joe Flacco Bring Against Brian Flores’ Defense?

We can debate why and if Anthony Richardson should be benched, but the fact is it will be Joe Flacco in this game for the Colts. There’s some potential long-term impact here for the Colts, but we’re just going to focus on this matchup.

With this 39-year-old version of Flacco, the Vikings aren’t going to have to worry about the 50-yard bomb as much as they would with Richardson, but there are other differences too. With some help from Next Gen Stats, here are the 2024 splits between Flacco (117 plays) and Richardson (158 plays) in this offense:

• Flacco is completing 65.7% of his passes with an average target depth of 8.7 yards.
• Richardson is completing 44.4% of his passes (fourth-lowest season since 1994 on a minimum of 120 attempts) with an average target depth of 13.2 yards (highest in NFL).
• Flacco (2.61 seconds) is faster to the draw than Richardson (2.98 seconds).
• Richardson has been pressured on 44.3% of his dropbacks compared to 29.1% for Flacco.
• Flacco (31.6%) and Richardson (32.9%) are using play-action passing at very similar rates.
• Flacco is completing 78.3% of his passes with +0.07 EPA/dropback while Richardson is only completing 55.2% of his short passes with -0.43 EPA/dropback (worst in 2024).

Plain and simple, Flacco is going to get the ball out a little faster, throw a more accurate pass, and he’s much more proficient in the short game than Richardson. The Vikings were making every quarterback look bad when they were 5-0, but a couple of veterans in Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford picked them apart these last 2 weeks in losses for Minnesota.

Stafford’s Luck vs. Goff’s Grit

This all sounds good for the crafty veteran Flacco, who has thrown multiple touchdowns in his last 8 regular-season games going back to last season.

However, Goff and Stafford had very different games in that Goff was pressured on 51.7% of his dropbacks, Minnesota’s highest number all season, and he still picked them apart. Stafford was barely touched last week with a pressure rate of 11.8%, the worst game for Minnesota’s pass rush this season. It’s not just as simple as getting after Flacco, though we know the Vikings are famous for mixing things up in coverage under Flores.

Let’s also keep in mind that Goff shares a division with Minnesota and faced Flores’ defense twice late in 2023 and had a lot of success. Stafford also had an advantage last week in that the Vikings weren’t sure what to expect from the return of receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and coach Sean McVay was the mentor to Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell. It’s not uncommon to see the mentor school his apprentice in such matchups.

Turning Tables

These are unfamiliar opponents, and this will only be Flacco’s 3rd start under Shane Steichen. We know O’Connell’s Vikings came back from a 33-0 deficit to beat the Colts in 2022 when Jeff Saturday was the interim coach.

Minnesota’s willingness to adapt the gameplan on defense could serve them well here as Flacco is a quarterback who can get himself into trouble with turnovers. We’ve seen the Vikings intercept Aaron Rodgers 3 times in London. They also beat C.J. Stroud and the Texans by 27 points this year. They can get after an older, slower Flacco too as he won’t have that element of scrambling in this game that Richardson would have had.

But the Colts are banking on him to be far better at stringing together completions than Richardson, which is also reasonable to expect.

Is Sam Darnold Slipping?

No one wants to believe this is the breakout Sam Darnold season in Minnesota. But despite the 2 losses in consecutive weeks, he hasn’t played that poorly. We know the Rams took him down by a facemask that wasn’t called as a controversial ending to that game. However, he needs to find a way to finish a game strong as his opening drives have been strong.

It’s the rest of the game where he falters at times.

That suggests a good script by O’Connell and not so good on the adjustments. We see Justin Jefferson start to slow down with his production, and No. 2 receiver Jordan Addison has yet to catch more than 3 balls in any game this season.

The Vikings also lost left tackle Chrisitan Darrisaw to a season-ending injury, a big blow. But they have traded for Cam Robinson from the Jaguars, so that should help with that hole. It’ll also help with the running game and Aaron Jones, who has played well this season.

Finish Strong

The Vikings are quite arguably the most talented offense the Colts have faced all season.

Despite the weak schedule for Indy, their defensive numbers are average at best. They have allowed some huge games on the ground and through the air. The only thing helping their numbers are schedule quirks like facing the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa or the Packers without Jordan Love, who just ran wild on them for 261 yards with Malik Willis and Josh Jacobs.

O’Connell’s offense can beat teams in a variety of ways, and for all his career flaws, Darnold has been somewhat consistent this year. Even in defeat, he’s completing 76.9% of his passes, 9.6 yards per attempt, and a 117.4 passer rating.

The Vikings just need to finish a few more drives with touchdowns.

Colts vs. Vikings (-5): Who Covers the Spread?

There are some underwhelming spread records for O’Connell in Minnesota since 2022 when he got the job. For example, his Vikings are only 4-8-2 ATS after a loss, the 2nd-worst record in that time. He’s also just 4-8 ATS as a home favorite.

But on the flip side, O’Connell is 7-3-2 ATS in non-conference games. His team also had more rest after playing last Thursday and is home for this one while the Colts try to travel with their quarterback switch.

All 8 games for the Colts this season have been decided by 1-to-6 points, including a 16-10 win over the Dolphins and a 16-10 loss to the Packers. If this sounds unusual, it’s because it is actually a record. The 2024 Colts are the only team in NFL history to have their first 8 games decided by 1-to-6 points. The previous longest streak to begin a season was 6 games by 9 teams, including the 1995 Colts.

If you limit the streak to any point in a single season, the 2024 Colts have already tied the NFL record with 8 straight games decided by 1-6 points. The 1993 Patriots did it before winning their 9th game 38-0. Who was their opponent? The Colts, of course. If you go back to last season, the Colts have had 10 straight games decided by fewer than 7 points, tied for the 2nd-longest streak in NFL history. The 2010-11 Cowboys had an 11-game streak.

Betting on Consistency

These facts alone make me want to say regression to the mean and pick someone to win this game by more than 6 points. Since it’s hard to imagine a once 5-0 team with the rest advantage will lose a 3rd-straight game, give me the team with the better offense and the better defense to cover.

Sure, Flacco pulling off the upset would make the soap opera even more incredible as then what do the Colts do about Richardson? But it’s actually even messier if he bombs in this one and the Vikings win big. Do they go back to Richardson?

That’s why I’m going to back the Vikings again for your NFL picks to end Sunday’s action. They are the better team.

NFL Pick: Vikings -5 (-115) at BetOnline

Vikings -5 (-115)

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