Commanders vs. Bengals Monday Night Football Picks: Will Cincinnati Avoid 0-3?

Bengals: Cincinnati Misses Tee Higgins

The Bengals went from having arguably the best wide receiver trio in the NFL to just having Ja’Marr Chase these last two weeks. Tyler Boyd left in free agency, and Tee Higgins was out both games with a nagging hamstring injury. Chase, disgruntled with his contract, had food poisoning in Week 1 and was held to 35 yards in Kansas City where he also picked up a huge 15-yard penalty in the 4th quarter.

Joe Burrow is very much a wide receiver-centric passer, but he completed 151 yards worth of passes to his tight ends last week in Kansas City, the highest game in his career. That is unlikely to continue this week, though Mike Gesicki has looked pretty good so far in this offense.

But this feels like a redemption week for Chase, who is going up against a Washington pass defense that was the worst in 2023 and is still struggling in Dan Quinn’s new system this year. The Commanders rank 32nd in points and yards per drive allowed. They have already been destroyed by No. 1 wide receivers Mike Evans (61 yards, 2 touchdowns) and rookie Malik Nabers (10 catches, 127 yards, 1 touchdown) this season. That’s a hint that Chase should find the end zone for the 1st time in 2024 in this game.

While hamstring injuries are tricky and must be managed properly, you get the sense that Higgins is trending in the right direction to make his 2024 debut, and they understand the importance of this game at home as they can’t really afford to start 0-3. Look for him to try playing this Monday night.

Defensively, the Commanders are blitzing frequently and getting an above-average rate of pressure, but they are tied for last in the league with 2 sacks to show for it. If Burrow is protected, he should have a good game to carry the offense in this matchup. Even Daniel Jones was moving the ball well against Washington last week while basically playing catch with Nabers.

Commanders: Is Jayden Daniels the Real Deal?

The bar is low for quarterback play in the NFL right now, and it especially has been tough on the rookies as none of them have thrown a touchdown pass yet. But Jayden Daniels, the No. 2 pick, has been the best of the trio so far. He’s rushed for 2 touchdowns, he’s not turning the ball over, his drive engineering has been very impressive as he mixes short passes with effective runs to help the Commanders on a lot of scoring drives.

Unfortunately, they are struggling in the red zone and had to settle for a field goal on every drive last week against the Giants. But it was still a historic game as it’s literally the only time in NFL history that a team scored a field goal on every drive it tried to score on (kneeldowns excluded). The Commanders were 7-for-7 at producing a field goal last week. No other team ever had a game with no punts, no turnovers, and more than 5 field goal attempts before Washington last week.

These long drives are why you can’t take Washington’s stats at face value as the Commanders have only had 15 possessions this year (excluding kneeldowns). That’s why this offense is No. 2 in yards per drive and No. 6 in points per drive.

The Cincinnati defense is solid with a secondary that is playing very well, but this is an unfamiliar opponent, and the Commanders should match up well as Daniels is unlikely to attack those corners deep with his wideouts. He’ll rely on his backs, tight ends, and his own legs. Your biggest concern is he gets into a pick parade in his first prime-time start as he’s yet to throw an interception.

But the Bengals have not been great at stopping the run this year, so if the Commanders can stick to what they’ve been doing, they will give themselves a fair shot in this one.

Commanders vs. Bengals: O/U 47 Points

We mentioned the Commanders having the fewest drives, but the Bengals are right above them with Arizona for the fewest drives. They didn’t touch the ball much in Week 1 against a New England team that managed the game well with minimal passing from Jacoby Brissett and a good ground game from Rhamondre Stevenson. That’s what the Commanders need to try replicating.

It shouldn’t be a 16-10 game again nor should it be 26-25 like last week in Kansas City. But even that score needed a Burrow fumble returned for a touchdown to go over 47 points.

Right now, I think the Bengals are struggling to hit big plays with the wide receivers, which would be the best way to light up this Washington defense. Look for a lot of short passes from both teams, a game that may not have more than 16 or 17 possessions between the teams, and we’ll go with the under in what can still be a well-played offensive game with long drives and many 3rd-down conversions. Keep in mind the Commanders rank 32nd on defense in 3rd down rate.

But you also take the under to protect in the case that Daniels just flops with turnovers as the Commanders have yet to commit one and that’s not sustainable.

NFL Pick: Under 47 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Under 47 (-110)

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