Commanders vs. Buccaneers NFC Wild Card Round Picks: Is Daniels Fit for the Fight?
-
Rainman M.
- January 9, 2025
Top NFL Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Sunday’s playoff game between the Commanders and Buccaneers.
For your Best Bets, I will recommend investing in the Buccaneers, the Commanders’ team total “under,” and the “over” on Jayden Daniels’ pass attempts.
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Washington’s Deficient Rush Attack
The Commanders’ running backs will struggle to run the ball well in this matchup. In their last four games combined, Washington running backs averaged 3.1 YPC on 66 carries.
Brian Robinson is supposed to be the team’s best ball carrier, but he failed to reach 2.5 YPC in two of his last four games and failed to exceed 3.1 YPC in three of them. In the one exception, he averaged 4.6 YPC against Atlanta’s mediocre run defense.
But Tampa Bay’s defense under Todd Bowles is devoted to stopping the run. Led by run-stuffer Vita Vea, the Bucs excel at doing so. Their run defense ranks fourth.
Why This Matters
The greatest burden will be placed on rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who will be making his first playoff start.
It is commonly said that a good running back is a quarterback’s best friend, but Daniels won’t have a best friend. He’ll face third-and-long situations, as Tampa Bay’s defense will shut down Washington’s rush attack on early downs.
These are tougher situations for an offense because they’ll have to produce more yards in a single down.
Tampa Bay’s Pressure
Third-and-long situations are especially tough for an offense because they make it more vulnerable to opposing pressure.
Pass-rushers love it when the opposing offense has a third-and-long because they can feel confident that it won’t hand the ball off. So, they can devote all of their energy to attacking the quarterback.
Tampa Bay, under Bowles, loves to attack the quarterback on every down, though. The Bucs are one of the best teams at applying pressure in part because they blitz more than any other team.
Daniels Under Pressure
When we think of the great season that Daniels is having and all of the hype that he is receiving, we understand why the Bucs are favored by only three points.
But Tampa Bay makes for a great bet because it will create a version of Daniels that contradicts the positive expectations for him. Instead of a good Daniels, we will see a struggling Daniels because Daniels struggles under pressure. He ranks 22nd in pressured completion percentage and 31st in pressured catchable pass rate.
Bonus Factors
Given the pressure that he’ll face, Daniels is going to have to run, but he’ll need healthy legs to run well, and he won’t have those. While his coaches are downplaying his injury — he exited last week’s game with leg soreness — they also downplayed his prior rib injury earlier in the season that did negatively affect his play.
Daniels will be further impacted negatively by his starting center’s lack of fitness. Tyler Biadasz is listed as ‘questionable’ for this game. Any influence that Biadasz’s ankle injury has on his performance or Biadasz’s inability to play at all would further hurt Daniels because it would make him even more vulnerable to Tampa Bay’s pressure.
With Daniels struggling and with his running backs being non-existent, Washington will struggle to score.
Washington’s Run Defense
Whereas the Commanders will struggle to sustain drives, Tampa Bay’s offense will have an easy time moving the ball downfield. Quarterback Baker Mayfield will primarily just have to hand the ball off to Bucky Irving, who has produced fantastic numbers despite taking time to get as many carries as he now regularly does.
With a limited number of carries, Irving accumulated 1,122 rushing yards in the regular season, which is the tenth-highest total. He averages 5.4 YPC. He’ll thrive against Washington’s 30th-ranked run defense.
The Commanders rank second-worst at limiting the explosive run rate of opposing running backs. They do a terrible job, among other things, of contacting the opposing ball carrier before he accumulates yards for himself.
It is often said that games are won in the trenches. Whereas Tampa Bay’s run defense and pass pressure will prove its dominance on defense in the trenches, Washington’s awful run defense will reflect its ineptitude in the trenches.
Washington’s Deficient Pass Defense
The Commanders allow few passing yards per game only because teams are so inclined, for obvious reasons, to run the ball against them. Their pass defense is awful, too, though.
Folks cast doubt on Washington because it is starting a rookie quarterback in the playoffs on the road — and it is right to do so: Daniels is going to struggle mightily — but the second-biggest factor in this game will be the decline that Washington’s already bad defense experiences away from home.
Its road passer rating allowed is 108.1. For comparison’s sake, Carolina’s pass defense ranks last in allowing a 105.1 overall opposing passer rating.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield is at his best as a Buccaneer. He is the NFL’s third-leading passer and will have an easy time against Washington’s pass defense.
The Spread Pick
Several trends indicate that Daniels would struggle regardless of his opponent because this is his first playoff game.
Quarterbacks making their playoff debut in general, as an underdog, and when facing a quarterback with playoff experience all strongly tend to fail to cover the spread. But even in a regular season scenario, this is a bad matchup for Daniels because of Tampa Bay’s pressure-heavy defense.
We saw him struggle, for example, against a blitz- and pressure-heavy Dallas team against which in both games he suffered a passer rating vastly below his season average. Last week, he got hurt against Dallas, and this leg injury can only make him struggle more, especially if his battered starting center is not fit to protect him.
On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offense, with its high-caliber quarterback-running back duo, will thrive.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-109) at BetOnline
Team Total Pick
While I see the Bucs covering the spread, I also feel like the over/under is very high. Daniels is going to struggle for various reasons, but his running backs also won’t help him.
The total will also prove to be too high also because Tampa Bay will spend a lot of time running back. The clock will constantly be ticking, as the likes of Irving runs well to sustain drives.
While I like the game “under,” I think that Washington’s team total “under” is the better play because Daniels will be sitting on the sidelines a lot watching Irving run and because he’ll face more of Tampa Bay’s pressure when he tries to come from behind because, like on third-and-long situations, it will be obvious to Tampa Bay’s defense that he needs to focus on passing.
NFL Pick: Commanders Under 23.5 Points (-110) at BetOnline
Prop Bet
I see Daniels throwing a lot of passes in this game primarily because his Commanders will be coming from behind and, also for reasons of game script, will not be able to rely on their running backs.
His leg injury creates a unique situation in which it is especially unlikely that he’ll run much.
While he will get sacked and a few times those sacks will take the place of him attempting a pass, the sacks will also create more passing situations in which he’ll attempt passes.
NFL Pick: Jayden Daniels Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-121) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
