Commanders vs. Lions NFC Divisional Round Pick: Washington Seeks the Upset
-
Jason Lake
- January 13, 2025
NFL Pick: Washington ML (+420) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
There are two kinds of companies Warren Buffett likes to buy: the bottom of the bargain barrel and the good stuff at a reasonable price. Buffett prefers the latter now that he’s a 94-year-old multi-billionaire who doesn’t have to schlep it anymore, but we’ll take either kind of betting value here at the ranch when it comes to our NFL picks at the top-rated sportsbooks.
So which bucket do the Washington Commanders (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) fall into? This is the playoffs, and the Commies have already beaten the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 as 3-point road dogs on the NFL Wild Card odds board. Yet, here they are, moving from +8.5 to +9.5 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) for Saturday’s Divisional Round matchup with the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the Detroit Lions (15-2 SU, 11-5 ATS).
This is the good stuff at a bargain-barrel price is what we’re saying. And Washington is even better on the moneyline, where you can bag them as +420 underdogs at BetOnline as we go to press. Let’s just hope they do better than our last NFL moneyline pick.
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Ford Field
Will the Commanders Fold Like Pittsburgh?
Maybe not. We took a flier on the Steelers last week at +430 for their Wild Card tilt with the Baltimore Ravens, and to be fair, that felt more like low-end bargain shopping. Pittsburgh was on a losing streak; the Commanders have won six straight at 4-2 ATS.
Russell Wilson (121.3 passer rating, 46.6 QBR with two TDs and zero picks) wasn’t to blame for the Steelers losing – we’ll pin that one on their defense, which turned into cotton candy after ranking ninth overall during the regular season (as per nfelo) at minus-0.04 EPA per play. Washington (minus-0.01 EPA, No. 13) will presumably put in a better effort on Saturday after keeping Tampa Bay’s high-octane offense in check.
Meanwhile, the Commies have a much better quarterback than Wilson, at least on paper.
Jayden Daniels finished fourth among qualifying starters this year with a 70.6 QBR; not only was he better than Wilson (51.3 QBR, No. 22) by that stat, Daniels also outperformed Lions QB Jared Goff (68.5 QBR, No. 6). Not bad for a rookie.
What About the Lions’ Defense?
It ain’t what it used to be.
Detroit was among the league’s leading teams on defense early in the year, but then things got hairier as the injuries piled up. The Lions still placed sixth on the season at minus-0.07 EPA per play, but that’s not truly indicative of where they are now after driving the Over to a 4-1 record since the end of November.
Detroit did have the bye week, and they’re doing what they can to get some of those injured defenders back in action Saturday – including rookie CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (hamstring), who was designated to return from IR last week. Rakestraw might not be truly ready in time for the Divisional Round, but the pressure will be on to get him in uniform with CB Carlton Davis (jaw) not expected to return this year.
The Pick
As for the point spread against the moneyline, this is an even easier choice than it was for that Steelers-Ravens game.
The price, either way, is about the same; the perspicacious BMR Spread/ML Converter says that a spread of +9.5 (with –110 juice on either side) is equivalent to a +405 moneyline (with a 4.5% hold on either side). Not only are the Commanders +420 at BetOnline, but we also think they’ve got a significantly better chance of winning than Pittsburgh did against the Ravens.
Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Washington ML (+420) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
