Conference Tournament Week Best Bets: Maryland Is a Well-Rounded Team
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Rainman M.
- March 15, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Maryland -4 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top Sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s college basketball action.
We’re interested in three games: Wisconsin vs. Michigan State, Tennessee vs. Auburn, and Michigan vs. Maryland, so let’s jump in!
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
The Last Game
Today’s Big Ten semifinal matchup is a rematch of a game that took place on March 2 in Michigan State’s venue. The Spartans beat Wisconsin 61-52.
Wisconsin underperformed significantly, converting 5 of its 32 three-point attempts. It will be much better from behind the arc today, where on the season its conversion rate is 35.7 percent, which is 20.1 percent higher than it was in its game at Michigan State.
The Badgers did get good looks from deep in that game. They could have established more of a presence in the paint, which could have helped them secure their second-half lead, but they could still rely on ball screens and other actions to unlock good shooting opportunities. Wisconsin’s shooters simply underachieved.
Moreover, the Badgers committed bad turnovers late in the game and suffered from Michigan State’s fortune to procure timely rebounds. Unlikely misfortune thus contributed to Wisconsin’s road loss.
Wisconsin Defending Wings and Transition Offense
The Badgers excel at guarding wings because they have strong perimeter defenders. They have bothered good wings throughout the season, such as when they limited Arizona’s Caleb Love to six points and Rutgers’ Ace Bailey to nine points.
Their success against these wings enabled them to beat Arizona by 15 at home and Rutgers by 12 on the road.
Michigan State’s outlook on offense is negative today because its top shot-taker on offense, Jaden Akins, is a wing. Akins attempts an extremely high proportion of his team’s shots, so Michigan State’s inability to depend on him today will inevitably yield deleterious consequences.
More broadly speaking, the Spartans also characteristically like to run, but Wisconsin has done a great job this season of limiting points scored in transition.
Takeaway
Wisconsin, by not underperforming to a ridiculous extent from deep, will exceed 70 points in this rematch.
Its ability to defend wings and limit transition scoring will secure a Badgers victory.
NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin +3.5 (-112) at BetOnline
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at Bridgestone Arena
Rematch
In the first game between these teams, Tennessee lost a hard-fought battle by two points on the road. The ending was controversial, as it was decided by a questionable referee call.
Tennessee is out for revenge today.
Tennessee’s Elite Defense
The Volunteers have an elite defense, one good enough to hold mighty Florida to 44 points, for example. It is strong in the interior and does the best job of any team in the nation at limiting opposing three-point percentage.
Auburn does have a great inside scorer in Johni Broome. He is, for good reason, easily their top shot-taker. His success near the basket allowed Auburn to win a close game against an Ole Miss team yesterday that is generally considered to be quite inferior to the Tigers, although Auburn had lost its last two games before yesterday and is now on an 0-3 ATS run.
Broome, though, is human. He struggled against a Kentucky defense that features an excellent rim protector in Amari Williams.
Tennessee has a strong interior defender of its own in Felix Okpara, who ranks a superb 28th nationally in block rate.
Auburn will thus struggle to score inside but also from behind the arc, facing the nation’s top perimeter defense.
Guards and Versatile Bigs
As evident in its losses to Texas A&M, Florida, Duke, and Alabama, an opposing offense needs some combination of good guard play and talented versatile scoring bigs to succeed against Auburn’s defense.
Tennessee has both. Point guard Zakai Zeigler is a warrior who regularly shows great vision on the court. He owns the nation’s sixth-highest assist rate.
The Volunteers’ best versatile big is 6-10 power forward Igor Milicic who is a very efficient inside scorer but is also dangerous from deep. His mobility and versatility make him physically quite similar to Alabama’s Grant Nelson, who was a crucial weapon for the Crimson Tide in their recent win over Auburn.
Takeaway
Tennessee will avenge its regular season defeat, relying especially on its combination of well-rounded defense and Zeigler and Milicic on offense.
NCAAB Pick: Tennessee +4.5 (-108) at BetOnline
Michigan Wolverines vs. Maryland Terrapins
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 03:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Outlook for Michigan’s Offense
Good guard play gives Maryland trouble. This is evident in its loss to Ohio State where Bruce Thornton amassed 31 points and in its loss to Oregon where Jackson Shelstad scored 23 points.
Maryland’s strength on defense is in the interior. Julian Reese is a dominant interior defender with his 132nd-ranking block rate and fellow big man Derik Queen is also an effective shot-blocker.
In order to score enough points to cover the spread, Michigan is going to have to have good guard play. The Wolverines would benefit from guards helping turnover machine Danny Wolf, who is a seven-foot power forward/center, with facilitating the offense.
But Michigan simply lacks good guard play. Tre Donaldson finally stepped up yesterday. While he did look great, he rarely performs well in two consecutive games.
Michigan ranked 17th in the Big Ten in three-point shooting percentage largely because its guard play is typically insufficient. Its offense revolves around Wolf and fellow seven-foot inside scorer Vladislav Goldin.
Both Wolf and Goldin will deal with Maryland’s tough interior defenders, who help the Terrapins be one of the best teams in the nation at limiting field goal efficiency inside the arc and at blocking shots.
The Wolverines’ insufficient guard play will impede Wolf and Goldin from benefiting from good spacing inside. They’ll have to make a lot of tough and contested shots, especially since Maryland figured out in the first meeting between these teams that the versatile Jordan Geronimo matches up well against the versatile Wolf.
Maryland’s Offense
In their most recent meeting, the Terrapins scored 71 points in their six-point win at Michigan.
They missed a lot of open looks inside and outside the arc. Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Reese underperformed tremendously relative to what they normally do.
The fact that the Terps were able to score so well on the road with two of their normally very efficient significant contributors underperforming is super impressive. One can only expect more from them today.
Takeaway
Maryland’s defense matches up very well against Michigan’s front-court-centered offense that lacks the guard play to take advantage of the Terps’ vulnerability.
On offense, the Terrapins will only perform better on neutral territory. Their completeness, featuring strong guard play and reliable inside scoring, will help them cover by a clear margin.
NCAAB Pick: Maryland -4 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
