Cowboys vs. Steelers Sunday Night Football Picks: Can Justin Fields Win a Shootout?

Steelers Look To Bounce Back

Dallas did what it does best last week in defeating the Giants, a team quarterback Dak Prescott has 13 straight wins against. But the Cowboys are going to be without some star defenders, including Micah Parsons.

The Steelers suffered their 1st loss of the 2024 season after their comeback came up short in Indianapolis in a 27-24 loss. The Steelers allowed more points in that game than they allowed during their entire 3-0 start (26).

The Cowboys are a 2.5-point road underdog with a total of 43 points at top-rated sportsbooks. We have analyzed the matchup and provided our favorite NFL picks for it.

Cowboys Must Protect Dak vs. T.J. Watt

A game like this could come down to the pass rush, and the Cowboys are at a disadvantage here as their T.J. Watt (Micah Parsons) is out with an injury. That is the player the Cowboys must watch out for on every snap, and the Colts did a great job of limiting Watt’s success last week as he was unusually quiet. You know he’ll be amped up at home to deliver in front of the crowd.

The Cowboys replaced veteran left tackle Tyron Smith with 1st-round rookie Tyler Guyton this year. Guyton has had a rough start, but at least in playing on the left side, he shouldn’t have to face Watt that often.

Prescott’s sack rate this year is 6.29%, which is almost identical to where it was last year. But according to Next Gen Stats, Prescott has been under pressure on 26.7% of his dropbacks, which ranks as the No. 6 lowest rate in 2024. Last year, he ranked No. 2 in that stat, so there has been a little more pressure relative to the rest of the league this season.

Prescott is coming off his best game this season, but the Dallas offense lacks dimensions. They are dead last in rushing yards and 30th in yards per carry (3.5) when they do decide to run the ball. Jalen Tolbert has emerged as their 2nd-best wide receiver, and tight end Jake Ferguson is a reliable catcher, but it’s largely CeeDee Lamb or bust this season, and he doesn’t always get great separation. Prescott will have to be careful about forcing passes to him as the Steelers are opportunistic on defense with safety Minkah Fitzpatrick always a magnet for the ball.

But Prescott should be the best quarterback the Steelers have faced this year. They caught some breaks with Kirk Cousins looking rusty in Atlanta in Week 1, Bo Nix was dreadful as a rookie in Denver in Week 2, and they caught Justin Herbert trying to play through an injury, which he lasted until the 3rd quarter before aggravating his ankle.

Last week, Anthony Richardson was embarrassing the Steelers early before he too left with an injury. Joe Flacco replaced him and led the Colts to a win anyway.

Prescott just needs to realize this is not a game where he needs to score 30 points to win on the road. The Steelers are a flawed offense that plays a lot of close games. Don’t feed them short fields with turnovers and this game should go down to the 4th quarter, if not with Dallas having the lead.

Can Justin Fields Deliver in a Higher Scoring Game?

There are some mixed opinions about how to treat Justin Fields’ performance in the 27-24 loss in Indianapolis. While the offense thrived late in the game with a few touchdown drives, they had another slow start with Fields struggling with the snap again, he lost an ugly fumble on a sack in the 3rd quarter, and the Steelers had just 3 points on their first 7 drives.

But down 27-24, Fields had a chance late to win the game or at least tie it. However, this is the situation he has repeatedly failed at in his career, and it happened again as he was not ready for a snap and nearly fumbled it. The game ended after Fields threw a dropped interception on a 4th-and-22 desperation heave.

Fields is now 2-17 (.105) in 4th-quarter comeback opportunities, the worst record among active starters. Fields is also 0-22 when his opponent scores more than 20 points.

So, he doesn’t win in crunch time, and he doesn’t win games where he needs to score an above-average number of points. The Steelers avoided such games for Weeks 1-3, but they couldn’t do it in Week 4 in Indianapolis. If Dak Prescott plays well, this could be a game where Fields has to put up more than 21 points to get the win.

While the Cowboys are missing pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, the Steelers are going through linemen left and right this year after losing more starters to injuries. They have a rag-tag group right now, and Fields is someone who holds the ball long and can invite a lot of pressure himself. Veteran defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is unlikely to be fooled by anything the Steelers want to do here, so he might manage well this week without an elite rusher like Parsons.

You could see the flaws in Pittsburgh’s line show up in the running game too as Najee Harris had 13 carries for 19 yards with no room to run. The Cowboys were playing abysmal run defense against the Saints and Ravens, but they stopped the Giants cold last week, holding Devin Singletary to 24 yards on 14 carries.

But with injuries in the secondary too, the Cowboys allowed Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson to combine for 23 catches last week. This could be a big game for George Pickens, who is by far the best receiver on the Steelers.

Prop Pick: Trust Dallas Kicker Brandon Aubrey

The total feels like a trap as this game could very well float right on that line in a 23-20 finish. Instead of going that route, let’s go with something that feels more valuable as Dallas kicker Brandon Aubrey has emerged as an incredible kicker. He made his first 16 kicks from over 50 yards, including a 60 and 65-yard field goal this season.

He’s basically the new Justin Tucker with the Baltimore kicker missing a lot of those long-range kicks these days. Aubrey is awesome and a great weapon for Dallas.

That’s why it should be a good prop for Aubrey to make over 1.5 field goals as the Cowboys should move the ball well between the 20s in this game, but you can’t trust them to finish enough drives for touchdowns. They are middle of the pack on both 3rd down and red zone, so the situational play hasn’t been there yet.

But with a kicker like Aubrey, it shouldn’t be hard for Dallas to knock a couple of field goals through in this game for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Cowboys Over 1.5 Total Field Goals Made (-133) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Cowboys Over 1.5 Total Field Goals Made (-133)

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Cowboys vs. Steelers (-2.5): Who Covers the Spread?

The injuries to Parsons and Lawrence feel very significant this week as with them in the game against a sack merchant like Fields, you had to like the chances for the Cowboys on the road. But Fields’ job gets easier without those star edge rushers available for Dallas.

Here are some other trends that are pro-Pittsburgh:

• Since 2021, Prescott is 3-6 ATS and 2-7 SU as a road underdog, so Dallas hasn’t been a good bet to back in this situation.
• Since 2022, Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS (72.7%) against NFC opponents.
• Since 2022, Pittsburgh is 10-6 ATS (62.5%) as a favorite, the 3rd-best record in that time.

If Dallas could be trusted to score 23 points here, that would be the moneyline pick to make. But with a one-dimensional offense and the way Mike Tomlin gets his team to play up to the competition, this feels like a game where the Steelers prevail by stopping Prescott late in the game. I’m taking the Steelers by a field goal or better for your NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Steelers -2.5 (-110) at Bovada

Steelers -2.5 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.