Cubs vs. Phillies MLB Best Bet: Runs Not Plentiful in Philadelphia
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LT Profits
- September 25, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Wednesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the City of Brotherly Love in the Cubs vs. Phillies matchup Wednesday.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, September 25, 2024 – 06:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
In a matchup of one of the better pitchers in baseball this year and an underrated hurler, we are backing the Under when Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies host Javier Assad and the Cubs.
Breakout Season
The Phillies had high hopes for Cristopher Sanchez when they called him up in 2021, but he was mostly disappointed over his first three years in the majors. That is not the case this year as the southpaw is having a breakout season at the age of 27 despite an extremely deceptive 11-9 record. You see, the modest record comes while ranking seventh in the league in xFIP at 3.14 and 14th in ERA at 3.25.
Cristopher is not a humongous strikeout guy at 7.58/9, but he is one of the best in the business at “throwing grounders”, ranking third in the majors in groundball rate at 58.1%. He does that by combining a heavy 94.4 MPH sinker and a slider rated 101 on Stuff+. That mix has also led to a good soft/hard contact ratio of 17.8% / 28.7%.
Quietly Effective
Now, Javier Assad may not be at Sanchez’s level, but he too is having a bit of a breakout year in his third season in the big leagues. He comes in at 7-5 with a nice 3.34 ERA over 28 starts covering 142.2 innings. He even has a similar profile as Sanchez with a moderate strikeout rate of 7.63/9 but a nice groundball rate of 48.1%.
And the similarity does not end there as Javier is also a sinker/slider pitcher. The sinker is not quite as heavy at 91.5 MPH but that has been effective enough given the groundball rate, while the slider rates a hefty 120 on Stuff+. Assed has also been very consistent, allowing three earned runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts and four runs in the other one.
It is also interesting to note that he has thrown eight scoreless innings against the Phillies over a 5-inning start and 3-inning relief appearance.
The Pick
So, what we have here is a pitcher in Sanchez that deserves a better record given his fine metrics and one in Assad that has been consistently good without much fanfare. Therefore, bet the Under on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Phillies 4 – Cubs 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
