MLB Pick: Cubs ML (+131) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We’re 11-4 in our last 15 plays after a 3-0 Wednesday, and today, we have three top bets for the 15-game slate that offer great value at the best sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Kansas City Friday night with the Cubs visiting the Royals, and it suggests looking at the latest MLB odds for the most accurate betting insights.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, July 26, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
While there is no doubt that Brady Singer of the Royals is having a better season than Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs, we are optimistic that the latter worked things out while pitching in relief. Thus, we are backing the Cubbies to upset.
Successful vs. Weak Offenses
Brady Singer comes in with a 6-6 record that probably should be better given his 3.00 ERA and 3.55 xFIP. He is also in great current form having allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts. However, that raging current form has a caveat, with that being the teams that he has faced.
All five of those great starts came vs. teams with a wRC+ below 100 against right-handed pitchers, including three of the four worst offenses in baseball against them in the White Sox (72), Rockies (84), and Marlins (84). Brady’s only start in his last six against a team above average in wRC+ against righties was against the Red Sox (109), and that was his one bad outing allowing four earned runs and eight hits in 2.2 innings.
Now, we are not saying Singer is bad by any means as his xFIP is valid, but there should be some regression facing a better offense.
Better Since Return to Rotation
As for Kyle Hendricks, he comes in at 2-8 with an ugly 6.69 ERA, although his xFIP is more than two runs lower at 4.50. He was so bad that the Cubs relegated the veteran starter to the bullpen for a while. But alas, there is actually hope for him despite the current ERA.
Kyle pitched well out of the bullpen, prompting the Cubs to give him another chance by re-inserting him into the rotation on June 19th. Well, he has more closely resembled his old self since then, allowing three runs or less in five of six starts, most recently against an Arizona lineup that has been usually pummeling righties with a wRC+ of 132 in July.
Furthermore, after the starters depart, the Cubs have the better bullpen with a 3.81 ERA and 4.04 xFIP, compared to a 4.21 ERA and 4.53 xFIP for the Kansas City pen.
The Pick
Considering the nice price on the Cubs here, we are willing to support Hendricks in his better form lately while expecting Singer to regress after dominating weak offenses. Bet the Cubs to upset on Friday.
Predicted Score: Cubs 5 – Royals 4
MLB Pick: Cubs ML (+131) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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