Diamondbacks vs. Marlins MLB Best Bet: Many Markers in Miami
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LT Profits
- August 21, 2024
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups for Wednesday with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total down in South Beach in the Diamondbacks vs. Marlins matchup on Wednesday.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 21, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at loanDepot Park
Lots of Homers
We expect a high-scoring game relative to this posted total in Miami, so we’re backing the Over when Roddery Munoz and the Marlins host Jordan Montgomery and the Diamondbacks.
The rookie Munoz is taking his lumps during his first taste of the Major Leagues. He enters at 2-7 with a 5.88 ERA and an equally bad 5.19 xFIP. Then again, he also had a 5.49 ERA and 5.83 xFIP at the AAA level in seven starts before getting recalled, so it is not as if he had high expectations.
Roddery Munoz combines a terrible K/BB ratio of 7.73/4.38 per nine innings with a low groundball rate of 33.6%, which is always a dangerous way to live. Moreover, he also has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 13.3% / 39.4%. All that hard air contact has resulted in 22 home runs allowed in only 78 innings in the big leagues, which equates to a horrific home run rate of 2.54/9.
That makes for a tough matchup facing an Arizona offense that is seventh in the majors in home runs and fifth in slugging percentage.
Has Been a Weak Link
The Diamondbacks have surged to a wild card spot at 71-56 following a slow start, but we consider Montgomery a weak link in their rotation. Sure, he is 8-6, but that is the result of great run support as he comes in with a whopping 6.25 ERA in 18 starts covering 89.1 innings. Granted his xFIP is much better, but 4.70 is still nothing to brag about.
Jordan Montgomery has a weaker command ratio than usual this season with a K/BB of 6.35/3.53 per nine innings, compared to a career norm of 8.19/2.58. Now 31 years old, his velocity is down to 92.0 MPH from 93.2 MPH last year, and the result has been a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 12.8% / 36.8%. He has also seen a drop in his overall Stiff+ to 93 from 97 last season and 100 two years ago.
The Pick
With Montgomery looking like a pitcher in decline and Munoz struggling mightily in the majors this far, let’s bet the Over on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 6 – Marlins 5
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
