MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with every team in action. We are here with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in Friday’s Diamondbacks vs. Padres matchup, and can be placed on top sportsbooks.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, July 05, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Petco Park
Although it is not obvious from their frontline stats, we feel Slade Cecconi of the Diamondbacks offers more imminent upside than Randy Vasquez of the Padres. Thus, we are backing the Snakes on the road in San Diego.
Pitching to Hard Contact
Randy Vasquez has been cleared to take this start after injuring his forearm, but frankly, we are not very fond of a healthy Vasquez to begin with. He comes in at 2-4 with a 4.88 ERA and not much better xFIP of 4.72. He is mostly a contact pitcher with a low strikeout rate of 5.57/9, and he does not make up for it with a high groundball rate, with that figure an ordinary 39.3%.
Worst of all batters are usually connecting, given Randy’s low swinging-strike rate of 8.4%, and much of the air-contact had been hard. He has seen his hard-contact rate spike to 33.2% from 27.3% as a rookie for the Yankees last season. And many of those hard-hit balls have left the yard with his home run rate at a dicey 1.74/9 in the NL West division.
Great Slider Helps
Now, Slade Cecconi enters with the higher ERA here at 5.81, although he has the better xFIP at 4.41. Granted that figure is still not great, but at least it is heading in the right direction as, unlike Vasques, Cecconi is at least showing signs of improvement.
You see, Slade is starting to increase the usage of his biting slider, which gets a great 113 Stuff+ rating. Its usage is now up to 22.1% for the season, and he threw it 34.1% of the time in his last start. That increased usage has resulted in Cecconi allowing three runs or less in five of his last six starts with an improved strikeout rate of 9.36/9 and a 3.35 xFIP over those starts.
The Pick
We look for continued improvement for Cecconi as the season goes on while there does not seem to be much indication that Vasquez will turn things around. Bet the Diamondbacks to snare a road win on Friday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Padres 3
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+100) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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