Diamondbacks vs. Pirates MLB Best Bet: Scarcity of Scoring in Steel City
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LT Profits
- August 2, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are now 16-8 in our last 24 plays entering Friday’s typically full card of MLB betting matchups with all 30 teams in action. We are back today at the top-rated sportsbooks with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Steel City in the Diamondbacks vs. Pirates matchup on Friday.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, August 02, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at PNC Park
We think runs will be hard to come by in Pittsburgh on Friday, so we are backing the Under when Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks visit Luis Ortiz and the Pirates.
This is More Like It
Those of you who have been following us know that we were very high on Pfadt entering this season. Well, his peripherals have indeed been quite good all year, but it took a while for his mainstream numbers to catch up. Well, they now have after posting a 2.15 ERA and 3.02 xFIP over his last five starts.
Granted, Brandon still has a losing record of 5-6, but he has lowered his once-inflated ERA to 3.92, which is more closely in line with his 3.75 xFIP. He has a nice K/BB ratio of 8.19/1.92 per nine innings with the potential for even more strikeouts given his 11.1% swinging strike rate.
He is also facing a Pittsburgh lineup ranked 28th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 83, and 29th in OPS against them at just .655.
Solid in All Roles
Ortiz has been mostly solid for the Pirates in multiple roles, as he has worked as a starter, reliever, and bulk pitcher following an opener. The end-result has been a 2.75 ERA over 78.2 innings. And the good news is that Ortiz may have cemented his role as a full-time starter with his recent performances.
Luis’s last four appearances have all been as a true starter, and he posted a 1.52 ERA over those outings while allowing one or no runs in three of the starts and three runs in the other. He may have a mediocre strikeout rate at 7.23/9, but he offsets that with a good soft/hard contact rate of 18.2% / 29.0%, which has led to a minuscule home run rate allowed of 0.46/9.
The Pick
So, with Pfaadt starting to show the promise we suspected all along and with Ortiz starting to blossom as a starter, bet the Under in Pittsburgh.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Pirates 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
