MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are 8-4 in our last 12 plays and have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday. As usual, we have three best bets for today’s slate that we feel hold great betting value at the top sportsbooks.
These plays and the current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Kansas City on Wednesday night with the Diamondbacks visiting the Royals.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, July 24, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
We are calling for a mild upset in Kansas City on Wednesday, and are therefore backing Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks when they visit Michael Wacha and the Royals
Facing Hot Offense
While we are aware Wacha enters this contest with a 3.55 ERA and 3.97 xFIP across 96.1 innings, we remain skeptical about his long-term forecast. While his fastball velocity is a decent 93.2 MPH, he is by no means overpowering and he does not score very high on Stuff+ with an overall rating of 91.
Now 33 years old, Michael Wacha does not have a great K/BB ratio at 7.94/2.62 per nine innings and his swinging strike rate of 10.2% is slightly down from 10.7% last season. Moreover, he does not figure to receive much help from an Arizona offense that has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 20.8%.
Speaking of that Arizona offense, it has been one of the hottest units in the majors against right-handed pitchers during the month of July, ranking sixth this month with a hefty wRC+ of 124.
Turned a Corner?
Now, we admit that we were down on Ryne Nelson earlier this year and he is still entering this game with a 4.78 ERA and 4.30 xFIP. However, he has shown legitimate improvement over his last four starts, during which he allowed exactly one run three times and allowed three runs in the other outing.
We say “legitimate” because the turnaround has coincided with a sudden turnaround in his strikeout rate. You see, Ryne’s command ratio for the season remains weak with a K/BB of 6.63/2.14 per nine innings. However, that ratio is suddenly 8.14/1.48 over those last four efforts, including nine strikeouts in 5.2 innings last time out when he allowed one run on three hits.
The Pick
With Nelson seemingly rounding to form and expected to get good run support, we are betting the Diamondbacks at an underdog price on the road Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Royals 4
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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