Dodgers vs. Athletics MLB Best Bet: Runs Not Bountiful by the Bay
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LT Profits
- August 2, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We enter Friday’s full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups 16-8 in our last 24 plays, and we return to the top-rated sportsbooks with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Bay Area, where our model likes a total when the Dodgers visit the Athletics.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics
Friday, August 02, 2024– 09:40 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum
We foresee a sneaky pitching duel in Oakland and are thus betting the Under when Gavin Stone and the Dodgers visit Joey Estes and the Athletics.
Pleasant Surprise
Stone was not even guaranteed a spot in the Dodgers rotation entering the season, but injuries to the starting staff have allowed him to shine. And he has done just that by going 9-4 with a 3.34 ERA that ranks a commendable 24th in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings. That ERA is especially good for a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Gavin has an overall Stuff+ of 99, which cannot be said for some #2 starters in the league. His fastball is a decent 94.8 MPH, but he has a vast arsenal of six pitchers, four of which he has thrown at least 16% of the time. That makes the fastball play even faster with batters forced to respect his slower breaking pitches. The end result has been a good soft/hard contact ratio of 17.6% / 26.8%.
New Man with More Sliders
Estes does not have great frontline stats at 4-4 with a 4.92 ERA and 5.23 xFIP. However, he has looked like a totally different pitcher since increasing his slider usage, with that rate now up to 33.4% for the season. And the reason for this is simple, as the Estes slider garners an excellent Stuff+ of 126!
Since making the change in his repertoire, Joey has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts including two scoreless outings. Moreover, batters are not getting great swings based on his outstanding soft/hard contact ratio of 22.4% / 27.6% over those five outings.
Estes may have sneaky value for a while given the slider has made him a different pitcher than he was earlier in the season.
The Pick
The one thing holding us back from backing the Athletics outright is Stone being in equally good form for the Dodgers. However, with these two surprising starters on the mound, we have no qualms about backing the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Athletics 3 – Dodgers 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
