Dodgers vs. Brewers MLB Best Bet: Scoring Takes Day Off with Buehler
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LT Profits
- August 14, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We return with the top three plays for Wednesday that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Badger State, where our model likes a total at when the Dodgers visit the Brewers.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, August 14, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at American Family Field
Great Rehab Start
It is not very often that we would bet an Under with two pitchers with an ERA north of 5.00, but we are doing it Wednesday when Walker Buehler and the Dodgers visit Frankie Montas and the Brewers.
Buehler was a Cy Young candidate going 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA in 2021, but he then tossed just 65 innings in 2022 and missed all last season while undergoing two elbow surgeries. The elbow was fine though entering this year as he is averaging 95.5 MPH through eight starts, a tick above his 95.3 MPH during the great 2021 campaign.
However, Walker Buehler was 1-4 with a 5.84 ERA and 4.32 xFIP when he was placed on the injured list on June 18th with a hip injury. Buehler admitted he first suffered the injury in April before his season debut, meaning he was pitching through the injury every start this year. This affected his mechanics as he felt the injury when pushing off his right leg.
Yet he was still throwing 95.5 MPH! He is now healed and has corrected his mechanics, as evidenced by his rehab start where he allowed one hit in 5.1 innings. He returns against a slumping Milwaukee offense that has scored a total of eight runs in the last four games.
Trade Should Help
Buehler is not the only pitcher here that may hold sneaky value going forward, as the same can be said of Montas. He enters at 5-8 with a 5.50 ERA and 4.62 xFIP after starting the year with a new team in the Reds. However, he did not like pitching in the Hitters’ Paradise that is Great American Ball Park, as he has a high home run allowed rate of 1.41/9 and a moderate strikeout rate of 7.92/9.
Frankie Montas has a nice strikeout rate for his career of 9.08/9, and much of the reduction of that rate this year could have to do with a reluctance to attack the strike zone in a hitters’ park. Well, he has already shown improvement in two starts since being traded to Milwaukee with 12 strikeouts in nine innings while allowing exactly three runs in each start.
The Pick
So, what we have here is two starters whose new circumstances point to improvement the rest of the way. This has us backing a sneaky Under in Milwaukee.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 4 – Brewers 2
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
