Dodgers vs. Cubs MLB Tokyo Series 2025 Best Bet: Foul Is Fair at the Egg

Welcome to Game 2 of the 2025 MLB Japan Series. My colleague Rainman M. has already done the honors for Tuesday’s regular-season opener between the Chicago Cubs and the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers; Rainman wisely put the Under in his MLB picks, specifically targeting the total for the first five innings – and we’re doing the same for Wednesday’s rematch.

We’re not just cutting and pasting Rainman’s work, though. Instead of the traditional focus on the starting pitchers, we’re leading off here at the ranch with the Tokyo Dome itself. Baseball stadiums in Japan are famous for having short porches, but their expansive foul territory is just as notable, and the Tokyo Dome has even more of this real estate than most venues across the Pacific. Let’s see if the betting public even notices.

What’s Wrong With the Pitchers?

Nothing specifically. They’re normally the first thing smart handicappers look at, and Rainman had two of the world’s best to preview in Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers and Shota Imanaga for the Cubs. Scoring runs off either of these guys is a chore at any stadium.

It’s not like they’re serving us pollock instead of real crab for Game 2:

• Dodgers: Roki Sasaki (2.06 xFIP in 2024)
• Cubs: Justin Steele (3.62 xFIP)

Sasaki makes his MLB regular-season debut this Wednesday after four eye-popping years with the Chiba Lotte Marines. The 23-year-old northpaw holds the NPB record with 19 strikeouts per game, and his fastball has been recorded at 102.5 mph, tying Shohei Ohtani for the Japanese record.

Steele also has four big-league years under his belt, all with the Cubs, and the last three have been particularly impressive. However, both these gentlemen had slight downturns in 2024, and this is still Sasaki’s first regular-season MLB game, even if he’s more than familiar with the Tokyo Dome. Temper your enthusiasm and your bet size accordingly.

How Ugly Is the Tokyo Dome?

It’s a double-bagger by 2025 standards. Opened in 1988, the Tokyo Dome was part of that wave of venues with air-supported roofs, as first developed on a large scale by David H. Geiger, the late co-founder of Geiger Engineers. These are the people who brought you the old Silverdome in Detroit, as well as our scene for Wednesday’s play – which they used to call the “Egg Dome” back when stadium nicknames were a thing. You can blame the sponsors for their disappearance.

Anyway, yes, this is one butt-ugly stadium. It’s still the mecca for Japanese sports and entertainment in general, and it’s still a big deal for these guys to be playing in front of some 45,000 baseball fanatics. But the Tokyo Dome has about as much charm as the Oakland Coliseum, and even more foul territory turning souvenirs into outs. Also, that “13-foot” outfield fence (4.24 m) is actually 13.91 feet tall. The kami are in the details.

What About Mookie?

Did we forget to mention Mookie Betts (141 wRC+) isn’t playing in this series? The eight-time All-Star came down with flu-like symptoms just before flying over with the Dodgers, and has reportedly lost 15 pounds since his arrival; Betts also sat out their exhibition games this past weekend against the Yomiuri Giants and Hanshin Tigers.

His absence doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t see some big scores when L.A. (No. 2 in hitting WAR last year) and Chicago (No. 12) come together. The other 10 times Major League Baseball visited the Tokyo Dome produced an average of 8.9 runs per game – practically a deluge versus the nominal Nos. 1 and 2 pitchers in each team’s starting rotation.

The Pick

As it happens, Wednesday’s full-game total is 8.5 at most online sportsbooks as we go to press, so at least we’re in the ballpark with our 4.5-run total for the first five innings. The Cubs might not get any runs off Sasaki; let’s see if Steele holds up his end of the bargain, and may the sphere be with you all season long.

MLB Pick: First Five Under 4.5 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

First Five Under 4.5 (-120)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.