Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 3 Best Bet: Weather Behind ‘Under’ in Queens

It was like watching a couple of heavyweights exchanging blows in the first two games of their NLCS out in Los Angeles, and now the Dodgers and Mets traverse the Lower 48 to bring the fight to New York for the next three contests.

Not all that long ago, top sportsbooks would have made LA’s Walker Buehler (1-7, 5.71) heavy chalk in a matchup against New York’s Luis Severino (12-7, 3.94). However, that isn’t the case Wednesday night when the oddsmakers have settled on the Mets as very slight favorites.

‘Over’ Has Dominated Season Series

Neither of the first two games out in Los Angeles were very exciting, except for maybe ‘over’ bettors. Jack Flaherty tossed the first 7 innings of LA’s 9-0 whitewashing in the series opener, the top of the Dodgers order having its way with Kodai Senga and Mets hurlers in the beatdown.

New York bounced right back on Monday for a 7-3 triumph as Sean Manaea and Mark Vientos starred. There was some brief excitement when the Dodgers mounted a rally in the sixth, but it wasn’t enough to keep Mets backers from cashing +135 on MLB odds boards.

Only once in the 8 meetings so far in 2024 was the final score closer than a 3-run margin, and New York’s victory in Game 2 halted a 5-game Los Angeles win streak in the rivalry. The Dodgers were favored in all 8 previous clashes with totals going 6-2 O/U.

Mets Seeing Buehler for 1st Time in 28 Months

After being absent from the mound for nearly two years recovering from a second Tommy John surgery, Buehler has suffered from his own inconsistent performance as well as some bad luck since returning to action earlier this season.

His start in Game 2 of the NLDS was a mix of both Buehler’s poor pitching and bad luck as well. He allowed all 6 of the Padres’ runs in the second inning when he was touched for 5 hits, a Fernando Tatis Jr. home run among them. Freddie Freeman’s throw that ricocheted off a wandering Manny Machado’s helmet set the whole frame up, however.

Buehler is facing the Mets for the first time since just before he blew his elbow out in June 2022, and a couple of their hitters should be licking their chops. Pete Alonso has taken Buehler deep 4 times in 14 career at bats, and Jesse Winker has done the same twice (15 AB).

Severino vs. LA

Severino has gone 6 innings in both of his postseason starts, the first one in Milwaukee where the Mets posted an 8-4 triumph in their Wild Card Series opener as +130 underdogs at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). The Dominican went 6 innings and allowed all 4 Brewers runs (3 earned).

He followed that with 6 more innings and 3 runs allowed in a 7-6 loss at Philadelphia in Game 2 of the NLDS. Severino didn’t factor in the decision after cruising into the fifth with a shutout, only to serve up back-to-back jacks to Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos.

His turn in the New York rotation didn’t come up when the Mets and Dodgers played this year, and Severino was roughed up in June 2023 when he last faced them in Los Angeles. Shohei Ohtani is 3-6 lifetime against Severino with a home run.

Umpire Notes & Mother Nature

It’s a 7-man rotation for crew chief Bill Miller, and Marvin Hudson is next up to call balls and strikes. Hudson worked the first base bag in Game 1, then had Game 2 off in preparation for what will be his 13th postseason plate assignment.

A veteran of more than 3,000 major league games during his 27-year career, Hudson was a friend to ‘over’ bettors in 2024 with an 18-10-2 O/U/P record. He worked the plate in Game 6 of last year’s ALCS, a 5-4 Astros win over the Rangers that pushed a 9-run total.

It is going to be about 20° cooler at first pitch in Queens on Wednesday than it was for the start of Monday’s clash in Los Angeles. The weatherman is calling for most of the contest to be played in the low-50s and under mostly clear skies, along with a 12-15 mph NNW breeze (in from left).

The Pick

Mike DiGiovanna penned a piece for the LA Times this week, and quoted Los Angeles infielder Max Muncy, “I will always bet on (Buehler) in these types of situations.”

I’m sure that was just a figure of speech and that Muncy doesn’t actually play Buehler and the Dodgers on the moneyline in these crucial playoff games…or any other time for that matter.

I’ll be betting on Buehler and his counterpart Severino – with help from the cooler temps, wind blowing in and their bullpens – to hold the scoring down for once and cash the ‘under.’

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (+102) at Heritage Sports

Under 7.5 (+102)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.