Dodgers vs. Mets NLCS Game 4 Best Bet: Quintana Rises to Occasion Again to Even Series
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LT Profits
- October 17, 2024
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+121) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs continue with both Game 3 of the ALCS and Game 4 of the NLCS on Thursday. We are 10-4-1 in the Playoffs so far after a perfect 3-0 Monday, and we are back with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel currently hold great betting value at the present MLB odds, based mostly on our proprietary model.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 3
And if you’re looking for even more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. For today, our expert covered this game and the Yankees vs. Guardians.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Thursday, October 17, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Citi Field
The Dodgers took a 2-1 lead in this NLCS series with an 8-0 wipeout last night, but we are backing the value Thursday with Jose Quintana and the Mets as underdogs facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Great Last Six Weeks
Jose Quintana is considered the Mets’ fourth starter, and he did go a nondescript 10-10 during the season with a good 3.75 ERA not supported by his 4.44 xFIP. But the southpaw was quietly one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month of the season and that has carried over into the playoffs.
You see, from August 25th onward, Jose allowed a grand total of three earned runs over his last five regular season starts covering 36.1 innings, translating to a 0.74 ERA while also inducing a 61.9% groundball rate! That is important for Quintana as he is not a strikeout pitcher that relies on generating groundballs with his 90.8 MPH sinker and excellent cutter rated 117 on Stuff+.
And he has not tailed off in the playoffs either while tossing 11 scoreless innings and allowing only six hits. He has certainly risen to the occasion as his two playoff starts have come in the decisive game of both the Wild Card Series and the NLDS.
Erratic Since Return
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was brought over from Japan by the Dodgers to be the ace of the staff. And his overall numbers when making it to the mound mostly served that purpose, as he finished 7-2 with an excellent 3.00 ERA and 2.86 xFIP. That xFIP would have ranked fourth in the majors had he qualified, but therein lies the issue.
Yoshinobu tossed just 90 innings due to spending three months on the injured list, and he has not gone beyond five innings in any of his six total starts since returning. And frankly, he has been a bit erratic since coming back. Yes, he tossed eight scoreless innings over his first two starts back, but he then allowed six earned runs in eight innings over his last two regular season starts.
Those struggles continued by allowing five earned runs in just three innings in his first playoff start before bouncing back with five scoreless innings (but with only two strikeouts) last time out. So, even if the “good” Yamamoto shows up, it would probably be for only five innings, and the Dodgers bullpen only ranked 23rd in the majors in xFIP at 4.21. Furthermore, that pen has the worst xFIP during the playoffs among the four remaining teams at 4.49.
The Pick
If all things were equal, we rate Yamamoto as the better overall pitcher here. But considering he has not been overly sharp since returning and his current stamina issues, we think Quintana is the better pitcher right now in his raging form. This has us betting on the Mets as home underdogs in Game 4.
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – Dodgers 3
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+121) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
