Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Game 3 Best Bet: King to Reign Supreme in Cali
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LT Profits
- October 8, 2024
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-140) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs continue with Game 2 of each ALDS series Monday and Game 3 of each NLDS series Tuesday. After going 4-2 the first week of these Playoffs, we return with three best bets from top sportsbooks over the Monday and Tuesday slates that we feel currently hold nice value on the MLB odds board.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model is liking a side in Game 3 from San Diego on Tuesday with the Dodgers visiting the Padres.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Tuesday, October 08, 2024 – 09:08 PM ET at Petco Park
This series is tied 1-1, and while the Dodgers had the best record in baseball this season, we see the Padres putting LA’s title hopes in jeopardy with Michael King facing Walker Buehler.
Best Career Season
Michael King prospered in his first season for the Padres, coming into his own at age 29 after coming over from the Yankees. He posted a career-high in wins going 13-9 with an excellent 2.95 ERA over 173.2 innings. His xFIP was a bit higher, but still good at 3.50. He was also brilliant in his first career post-season start in the Wild Card Series, tossing seven scoreless innings with an amazing 12 strikeouts and no walks allowing five hits.
Michael had double-digit strikeout rates his last two years with the Yankees, and made it three straight years this season for the Pads at 10.42/9, not to mention his Wild Card outing. He has a nice arsenal of four pitches, and he has similar usages for all of them ranging from 23.4% to 27.9%. That is a rare quality that keeps batter off balance, though his wipeout pitch is unquestionably his slider rated 125 on Stuff+.
King also did not allow an earned run over 12 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers this season, allowing only five total hits with 13 strikeouts.
Still Erratic Since Comeback
Walker Buehler has his worst Major League season going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA, 4.49 xFIP, and career-low strikeout rate of 7.65/9. To be fair, he injured his hip when hit in the Peroneal nerve during batting practice in April but tried to pitch through it until placed on the injured list in June and missed two months.
But even with that, Walker has still been erratic since returning on August 14th, posting a 4.93 ERA and 4.67 xFIP with the strikeout rate still only 7.75/9 in eight starts. And his overall soft/hard contact ratio of 14.3% / 33.5% did not improve substantially either since coming back, at 15.6% / 30.3%.
He is now facing a San Diego offense ranked third in the majors in wRC+ against right handers at 116.
The Pick
Buehler is not the pitcher he used to be, hip injury notwithstanding, while King appears to be entering his peak and has shut down the Dodgers twice this season. Thus, we are betting the Padres even as decided favorites in Game 3 on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Padres 5 – Dodgers 2
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-140) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
