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Dodgers vs. Padres NLDS Game 4 Best Bet: Sinking Scoring in San Diego
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LT Profits
- October 9, 2024
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MLB Pick: Under 8 (-118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs continue with Game 3 of each ALDS series and Game 4 of each NLDS series Wednesday. After going 6-3 thus far in these Playoffs, we return with three best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel currently hold nice value on the MLB odds board.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model is liking a total in Game 4 from San Diego on Wednesday with the Dodgers visiting the Padres.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 4
- Yankees vs. Royals ALDS Game 3
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more advice on today’s games, featuring the Yankees vs. Royals and Dodgers vs. Padres.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, October 09, 2024 – 09:08 PM ET at Petco Park
The Padres are on the verge of eliminating the team with the best record in baseball this year in the Dodgers after a 6-5 win last night to take a 2-1 series lead. Our focus here is on the Under though, as after three Overs to open this series, we see a much lower scoring affair with Dylan Cease starting for San Diego and Landon Knack expected to follow an opener for LA.
Fifth in WAR
While Michael King is now considered the ace of the Padres, we feel that Dylan Cease is actually their best pitcher, as evidenced by ranking fifth in the majors in WAR at 4.8 behind four aces (Sale, Skubal, Wheeler, Ragans). Do not be fooled by the 14-11 record as Cease has a 3.47 ERA and an aligning 3.44 xFIP.
Dylan has a wicked combination of a 96.9 MPH fastball rated 123 on Stuff+ and a wipeout slider rated a sensational 131. That led to a great strikeout rate of 10.65/9 that ranked sixth in the majors. He was not intimidated in his two starts against the Dodgers either, allowing a total of four runs and eight hits with 10 strikeouts in 10.2 innings.
Commendable as Rookie
Landon Knack was an emergency call-up when the Dodgers’ rotation was ravaged by injuries, and while he finished 3-5, he pitched much better than expected. In fact, he pitched so well that he remained on the roster the rest of the season and is now included on the playoff roster.
Landon finished with a better than expected 3.65 ERA and he ended up with a nice strikeout rate of 9.00/9 over 69 innings. He has made 12 traditional starts allowing three earned runs or less in nine of them, and has now seemed to have taken to this role of following an opener. The last two times that this happened, he went on to allow a total of two runs (one each time) and eight hits over eight innings.
The Pick
So, what we have here is a seemingly underrated Cease that has rather quietly been one of the better pitchers in the majors, and the rookie Knack that has been effective in multiple roles. Bet the Under on Wednesday in San Diego.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Dodgers 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-118) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
