Dodgers vs. Yankees World Series Game 3 Best Bets: Bronx Bombers Back in Series vs. Buehler

The Yankees have dug an 0-2 hole in this World Series by losing both opening games to the Dodgers in Los Angeles. However, we do not see them going down without a fight and are looking for a relatively high-scoring win in Game 3 with Clarke Schmidt facing Walker Buehler.

Not What He Once Was

Buehler is clearly not the same pitcher he used to be since undergoing Tommy John surgery after making only 12 starts in 2022 and then missing all last year. His comeback was derailed further when he injured his hip in April but pitched through it, ultimately resulting in a two-month stint on the injured list.

Now, while he did have a few good starts after returning from the hip injury, he was still mostly erratic and finished the regular season 1-6 with an ugly 5.38 ERA. Granted, his xFIP was a bit better but it was still lacking at 4.49. Walker’s overall Stuff+ was usually in the 110s before his surgery, but it dipped all the way down to 94 this season. This resulted in a career-low strikeout rate of 7.65/9, a career-worst walk rate of 3.35/9 and a poor home run allowed rate of 1.91/9.

That is an awful combination facing a Yankees lineup that led the Major Leagues in home runs this season with 237 and led in wRC+ against right-handers at 120. And Buehler has remained inconsistent in these playoffs. First, he was roughed up for six earned runs in five innings in the NLDS, and although he tossed four scoreless innings in the NLCS, being pulled so early signifies a lack of faith.

Been Good in Small Doses

As for Schmidt, while we feel he overachieved this season with a 2.85 ERA while limited to 85.1 innings due to injury, he did still have a decent 3.92 xFIP. To his credit, his strikeout rate saw a nice spike to 9.81/9, and he generally kept the ball in the yard with a home run rate of 0.84/9. However, he continued to struggle with command with his walks at 3.16/9, and the deceptive ERA received a boost from a lucky strand rate of 80.0%

With that said, he has proven to be effective in small doses during the post-season, allowing an identical two runs in 4.2 innings in each of his two starts. A similar outing would probably suit well here given the Yankees have a nice bullpen that finished sixth in the majors in ERA during the regular season at 3.62 and 10th in xFIP at 3.92.

Furthermore, that Yankee pen still has a sparkling 2.87 ERA this post-season despite Nestor Cortes, who is usually a full-time starter, allowing a walk-off grand slam in Game 1.

The Picks

Betting the Side

While Schmidt is not as good as his ERA, we do like the idea of limiting him to a maximum of five innings before getting the bullpen involved. We also expect the Bronx Bombers to get to Buehler and a Dodgers’ bullpen that has a weak post-season xFIP of 4.77. That should be enough for the Yankees to get back in this World Series with a huge win in Game 3.

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-138) at Heritage Sports

Yankees ML (-138)

Visit Site

Betting the Total

While we expect New York to prevail, we still think the Dodgers will do at least some damage after ranking second to the Yankees in wRC+ against righties this year at 117. That has us also betting the Over on Monday.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Over 8.5 (-115)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.