Dodgers vs. Yankees World Series Game 4 Best Bets: Gil to Drown Under Pressure
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LT Profits
- October 29, 2024
Top MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (+128) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have now reached a potentially deciding Game 4 of the 2014 World Series with the Dodgers on the verge of an unexpected sweep on Tuesday. We are here with the two plays that, according to the MLB odds and our proprietary model, we feel have the most betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel! For today, our expert covered this game by providing some alternative betting angles.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 – 08:08 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
Few people would have predicted a Dodgers’ four-game sweep of this World Series before it started, and yet they are looking to accomplish just that Tuesday. And we are betting on them to do so as Luis Gil has overachieved this season for the Yankees, and we expect LA to score enough against him in support of their Bullpen Game to secure the deciding win.
Terrible Command
The frontline stats would indicate that Gil had a nice year as he finished 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA. However, he was not nearly that good, as evidenced by his 4.36 xFIP. And as usual, his metrics more closely support the weaker xFIP than the deceptive ERA, as he allows a lot of traffic and air contact.
Luis has always had an issue with walks, with a career walk rate of 4.77/9 over his three seasons. Well, things did not really change this season with the walks at 4.57/9, and he combined that with a low groundball rate of 35.6%. He even had an above-average hard-contact rate of 32.1%, yet somehow garnered his ERA with most of the hard contact being in the air. Most of that disconnect comes from being very lucky with a low .237 BABIP.
His lone playoff start in the ALCS was par for the course, as he escaped with allowing two earned runs in four innings despite three walks and an FB/GB ratio of 9/3. His luck could run out here against most likely the best offense that Gil has faced all year, as the Dodgers finished second to the Yankees in wRC+ against right-handers this season at 117. Moreover, LA has the highest overall wRC+ during these playoffs at 121.
Which Pen Shows Up?
This marks the fourth time this post-season that the Dodgers have employed a bullpen game, with mixed results.
The pen came up big in an elimination game in the NLDS against the Padres with a combined shutout. But then, the pen did not fare so well in two such games against the Mets in the NLCS, allowing seven runs in a Game 2 loss and five runs in the deciding Game 6 with the offense overcoming that in a 10-5 win.
Well, while the Dodgers may not score 10 runs again, we do expect them to get to Gil here after already tagging better pitchers during this post-season, especially right-handers. That should take some pressure off and give the bullpen some leeway in allowing some runs in the middle innings before bringing in their top relievers late.
The Picks
Betting the Side
Gil has been very lucky all season as his Sabermetrics simply do not support his glossy record and ERA. And we think this time he will pay the price for his wildness as the last thing you want to do is issue free passes to a great LA offense.
Given that, back on the Dodgers as underdogs to give the relievers enough run support to win Game 4 and complete a surprising sweep.
MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (+128) at Bookmaker
Betting the Total
As mentioned, the Yankees led the majors in wRC+ against righties at 120, and they were very good against left-handers also at 106. Thus, no matter which relievers they face, we are betting that they score enough to push this total Over.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
