Dodgers vs. Yankees World Series Game 5 Best Bets: Flaherty To Rake Cole for Title

With the Yankees extending this World Series by pummeling the Dodgers 11-4 last night, we now get a Game 1 rematch for Game 5 with Gerrit Cole hosting Jack Flaherty. We are opting for the value we see in Flaherty and backing the Dodgers to win the championship in a relatively low scoring affair.

Is He Back?

We lost by fading Flaherty as a decided favorite in Game 1 after entering that start with a post-season ERA over 7.00, but he responded with his best game of the playoffs. He allowed two runs in 5.1 innings with six strikeouts against only one walk while allowing nine ground balls, finally resembling the pitcher he was during the regular season. The lone downside was he left the contest with hamstring tightness, but he is now fine to take this start.

Jack ended up being the Dodgers ace after coming over from the Tigers, and he finished a combined 13-7 for the two teams while ranking fourth in the majors with a 3.00 xFIP and 13th with a 3.17 ERA. He also ranked third in the league with a lofty strikeout rate of 10.78/9, but that rate was not there in his three post-season starts prior to Game 1, when he finally averaged over one strikeout per inning.

Granted he is facing a Yankees lineup that led the league in wRC+ against right-handers, but apparently Flaherty has their number as he tossed six scoreless innings against the Bombers in his last regular season start before again pitching well in Game 1. And unlike that series opener, it is nice to get him at an underdog price this time.

Cole Now the One Overpriced?

We also had some doubts about Cole entering Game 1 after he had just one Quality Start in his first three playoff outings. But like Flaherty, Cole also had his best start of these playoffs allowing one run on four hits in six innings. Granted, he had just four strikeouts but that was offset by not walking a single batter.

More critically though, Cole was not as good as Flaherty during the regular season. Gerrit is the reigning 2023 AL Cy Young Award winner, but he went only 8-5 this year while limited to 95 innings after beginning the year on the injured list with an elbow injury. He finished with a 3.41 ERA that was his highest since way back in 2017, and a 3.99 xFIP that was his highest since 2016.

Furthermore, while Cole had a nice strikeout rate of 9.38/9, this still marked the third straight year that the now 34-year-old had a lower strikeout rate than the previous season. That came along with his walk rate spiking to 2.75/9 this season, his highest rate since 2018.

The Picks

Betting the Side

Both these aces have similar profiles in that they both looked vulnerable entering Game 1, and each responded with their best game of these playoffs.

So, this play comes down to value, and this time we feel Cole is the one overpriced after the underdog Flaherty had the much better season and seemed to re-find himself last start. Thus, we are betting the Dodgers at an undderdog price to close out this series in Game 5.

MLB Pick: Dodgers ML (+133) at Bookmaker

Dodgers ML (+133)

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Betting the Total

As great as these pitchers were in Game 1, the total still snuck Over in fortunate fashion due to the walk-off grand slam by Freddie Freeman. We expect justice to be served this time around for total bettors with both starters pitching well enough to secure an Under.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Under 8 (-103)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.