Dolphins vs. Rams Monday Night Football Picks: Don’t Hawk Tua, Take the Over
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Jason Lake
- November 7, 2024
NFL Pick: Over 50 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
I love it twice as much when two plans come together. Not only did the Over cash in during last week’s episode of Monday Night Football, Tampa Bay also covered as 9-point road dogs on the NFL odds board when they lost 30-24 to Kansas City (Over 45.5) in overtime. Plan A and Plan B, check-check.
Can we keep this MNF betting streak alive here at the home office? The weather won’t change anything this time; they’ll be nestled snugly in SoFi Stadium when the Los Angeles Rams (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 Total) host the Miami Dolphins (2-6 SU and ATS, Under 5-3), with Miami moving from +3 at the open to +1 at most sportsbooks as we go to press.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams
Monday, November 11, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Why We Look at the Total
Early money is sharp money, right? The BMR consensus reports show 61% support for Miami, and I might have been among those supporters at +3; definitely at +3.5 for a small sum. But the wise guys have already hoovered up all that betting value, and the odds haven’t shifted enough yet to put the Rams in our Week 10 NFL picks.
So let’s hit up that Over instead. That’s got 71% consensus at press time, but the total has only edged up slightly from 49.5 to 50 at Bovada – still below the magic number 51. Make it a small bet, though, because we’re dealing with a volatile substance: Tua Tagovailoa.
Is Tua Tagovailoa Good?
If you’re asking about his quarterbacking skills, yes, Tagovailoa is good. He’s not playing at an MVP level; Tagovailoa ranks No. 20 among qualifying QBs with plus-0.09 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback according to nfelo, and No. 13 in rushing at plus-0.02 EPA. But those are good numbers.
The arrow is trending up, though. Tagovailoa has rounded into form in his two starts since coming back from his latest concussion; both went Over the posted total, with Miami losing 28-27 to Arizona (Over 46) in Week 8, and 30-27 to Buffalo (Over 49) in Week 9.
The Dolphins also find themselves unusually healthy heading into Week 10. Their offensive line has kept Tagovailoa upright for the most part, allowing just one sack each to the Cards and Bills while also opening large gaps for RBs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. That 1-2 punch had Miami within two eyelashes of being .500 right now.
Are the Rams Back?
It seems that way. Three straight wins have put the Rams in second place in the NFC West, but they did need overtime to beat the wounded Seattle Seahawks (+1 at home) 26-20. This was two weeks after failing to cover their ugly 20-15 win over the Las Vegas Raiders (+7.5 away).
Both those games went Under their totals, even with that overtime frame in Seattle, so we’re tempering our enthusiasm and our bet size for the Over this Monday. The Rams still have depth issues on the offensive line, but they do have wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in uniform, and Miami’s pass defense is in the middle of the pack at plus-0.05 EPA per play (No. 15 overall).
The Pick
If you’re among the many, and you like to hammer the Over while you watch them fling the football around, you could do a lot worse than Tagovailoa taking on the ninth-worst pass defense in the league (plus-0.14 EPA per play).
And there’s something to be said for the steady right arm of Rams QB Matthew Stafford (plus-0.05 EPA per dropback, No. 26), especially when said arm is kept warm and cozy indoors. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Over 50 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
