Betting on Donald Trump Trials: Sentencing and All Conviction Odds
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Bookmakers Review
- November 12, 2024
Now that Donald Trump has secured his reelection bid for the White House with his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, it is unlikely that any of the cases against President-elect Trump will result in jail time.
The federal cases may be dropped voluntarily by the prosecution. It is also a possibility that in a bid to turn the temperature of the country that sitting President Joe Biden could pardon Trump. If not, Donald Trump could simply do himself or instruct his Justice Department to drop the cases.
Political betting sites previously released betting odds on the outcome of Donald Trump’s trials.
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Odds on Trump’s Sentence in N.Y. Case
Judge Juan Merchan has delayed his ruling on Trump’s Hush Money trial until November 19.
Merchan must unpack the Supreme Court’s decision and determine if the prosecution’s trial evidence is still valid given that it was collected while Trump was in the White House, but this is in serious doubt now that Donald Trump has won his reelection bid for the White House.
Bettors had multiple choices to wager on Trump’s sentence with Bovada Sportsbook, though these bets are currently off the board.
Sentencing must occur in 2024 for the bets to have action; and more than one bet may be a winner based on the scope of the sentence. For example, Trump could be sentenced to probation as well as some form of home confinement.
All eyes will be on Judge Juan Merchan November 26, should a sentencing still take place, to see what sentence awaits the former Commander-in-Chief and current President-elect.
Trump took particular issue with Merchan’s jury instructions and his overall stewardship of the trial.
The options on the table as previously published by Bovada Sportsbook are listed below:
| Sentence | Odds | Bovada |
|---|---|---|
| Fine | -10000 | |
| Probation | -2000 | |
| Community Service | +400 | |
| Home Confinement | +400 | |
| Incarceration | +450 | |
| Electronic Tag | +700 |
These Donald Trump prop bets are straight bets offered by Bovada and cannot be combined into a parlay. Bovada updates these betting odds daily in response to the news cycle, offering bettors the opportunity to potentially hedge their bets as the market moves.
Trump to Serve Community Service
Should Donald Trump be ordered to complete community service, Bovada has spread numerous bets on what that will entail; though there are some obvious novelty prop bets spread such as the idea of the former President being mandated to work for the Clinton foundation at +2500 odds. Another novelty prop bet is that Trump will be tasked with removing graffiti at +300 and delivering food to the elderly at the odds of +2000.
Classified Documents Trial Odds
Donald Trump pleaded not guilty last June to a 40-count indictment alleging that he improperly handled classified documents. Federal authorities invaded Mar-a-Lago in search of the documents. US District Judge Aileen Cannon issued a court order indefinitely delaying the start of this trial, which was originally set to begin May 20, but on July 15 announced the decision to dismiss the case.
This means all bets were graded as no action. Bovada had priced the market at -130 for a Trump acquittal and even money (+100) for a conviction.
Federal Election Fraud Trial Odds
Now that Trump has won the U.S. election, it is expected that the federal cases against him will be dropped, either by Jack Smith or the Trump Justice Department.
Pundits believed the election interference case brought by Special counsel Jack Smith was one of the weakest cases brought against the former Commander-in-Chief. Jack Smith was appointed in November 2022 to investigate Trump as well as his political allies.
On March 19, Trump’s legal team filed a brief with the Supreme Court arguing that he should be protected from prosecution on grounds of immunity. The New York Times published an op-ed posing the question of whether or not the Supreme Court was attempting to “run out the clock” on the case until after the November election.
Trump is trading at the same even money (+100) odds for a conviction, essentially making this market a coin-flip.
It is possible that Trump could become President-elect and that the Supreme Court sides with prosecutors in ruling that Trump is not immune from prosecution — which would further inflame tensions in an already divided political landscape. As this trial is not expected to take place before the election, it is unlikely to have any material impact on Trump’s election odds or national polling performance.
Georgia Election Interference Trial Odds
The case in Georgia, led by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, is perhaps the most shaky as recent betting movement indicates, much like the classified documents and federal election interference case. It has already been marred by allegations of inappropriate conduct between Willis and the since-recused prosecutor Nathan Wade, with whom Willis had a romantic relationship.
This case has been delayed by the Georgia Court of Appeals. Oral arguments will be heard after Trump’s legal team appealed Fulton Judge Scott McAfee’s decision to allow DA Fani Willis to stay on the case, making it unlikely that the case will go to trial this year.
Trump is likely to be acquitted at the odds of -165, while a guilty verdict is trading at +125.
Bookmakers Review will continue to monitor the status of the legal cases faced by Donald Trump and update this article as more betting odds are released by sportsbooks.
