Top NFL Pick: Team to Commit First Accepted Penalty – Chiefs (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Super Bowl LVIII is another elite matchup involving the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
It could be a better game than the one they played 4 years ago as the Chiefs bring a stronger defense, the 49ers bring a stronger offense, and the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
As a record number of bets pour in on the big game, you should be a bit more judgmental on where you are spending your money for fun and where you really see value in the many props and betting markets available for a game like this.
In a game with Rashee Rice, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, are you really going to blow half your bankroll on a prop pick asking if Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift in the post-game celebration?
It is time to get serious, bettors.
Having said that, here are some do’s and don’ts for betting on this Super Bowl at top-rated online sportsbooks.
Remember, you still have things like March Madness and the end of the NBA season to keep the bankroll alive.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Do Treat the Super Bowl as Another NFL Game
This could be good advice for players playing in the Super Bowl too.
You should not go out of your way to treat this game as anything bigger than any other game this season. Stick to your routine and trusted processes. If you like to bet quarter props, then bet the quarter props. If you like doing spread bets, then make your best spread bet.
The Super Bowl used to be one of the most underwhelming games with many of them decided before halftime. Lately, it has been a closer game and usually goes down to the final quarter. This is good for betting props, especially in the passing game.
But you don’t have to go crazy betting it just because it is the last NFL game until September.
Don’t Get Stuck in the Past
We rarely see a Super Bowl that is a rematch from earlier in the season, and this year is no exception.
These teams played last season (the Chiefs won 44-23). Their last meeting before that was 4 years ago in Super Bowl LIV when the Chiefs won 31-20.
However, even if these teams played this year, you can’t really count on that for predictive value either.
Remember, the Chiefs won 27-24 in Tampa Bay in Week 12 back in the 2020 season. They met again in Super Bowl LV and it was the most anti-Kansas City game in the Patrick Mahomes era. They were blown out 31-9 and never found the end zone. The game was a massacre for putting together a parlay. So many people expected another shootout and that both teams would find the end zone multiple times.
There may be something to Mahomes being 3-0 against the 49ers with big numbers every time. However, that says more about who he is as a player than anything. Compared to 2019, this San Francisco defense is worse and so is the Kansas City offense. The San Francisco offense is better but so is the Kansas City defense.
That means you arguably have a strength vs. strength matchup (Chiefs defense vs. 49ers offense) and a weakness vs. weakness matchup (Chiefs offense vs. 49ers offense) in this game.
That should be fun, but it’s probably not the best sign for the 49ers when we’re calling the unit with Mahomes a weakness for the Chiefs.
Don’t Bet on the Coin Toss
My friend has had me place a bet for him on the coin toss in the last 2 Super Bowls and he’s gone 1-1.
I just shake my head each time as it is a 50/50 proposition and most sportsbooks still take their cut on the vig, so you don’t get even odds (+100 on each side) like you deserve.
There are so many more interesting things to bet on instead of a coin flip. Wouldn’t you rather bet if Marquez Valdes-Scantling will catch a ball instead of heads or tails?
Just say no to the coin toss.
Do Bet on the Officiating and Penalty Props
The head referee for Super Bowl LVIII is Bill Vinovich. He has always had some blind spots for things like pass interference calls. However, he generally calls fewer penalties than the average official.
Nonetheless, you should absolutely take part in betting on the penalty props for this game. There is this strong belief by many that the NFL has “rigged” this game for the Chiefs for Taylor Swift. This is ludicrous unless you can prove that the league told Isaiah Likely to throw his hand up for a pass in triple coverage that Lamar Jackson still threw for an interception in the end zone in Baltimore.
With the expectations that the refs are going to “cheat” for the Chiefs and call all these penalties, it is a great opportunity to go the other way on that with these props.
Showing early that there is no bias for the Chiefs, look for the Chiefs to get hit with the first penalty of the game.
Love the value on this one, and Vinovich is no stranger to drawing the Chiefs in big championship games:
- Vinovich refereed the 2021 AFC Championship Game between the Bengals and Chiefs. That game had just 41 penalty yards between the teams.
- Vinovich also was the referee for the 2020 AFC Championship Game between the Chiefs and Bills. That game had 70 total penalty yards.
- Finally, Vinovich was the referee for Super Bowl LIV between these teams. The game had 69 penalty yards with 45 yards from the 49ers and 24 yards from the Chiefs.
More than usual, the refs not being the story in this game would be great. So go against the conspiracy theorists and expect low penalty numbers that do not favor Kansas City.
NFL Pick: Team to Commit First Accepted Penalty – Chiefs (-115) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Total Penalty Yards – Under 79.5 (+145) at Bovada
Do or Don’t Bet on Entertainer Props (Depending on Your Fandom)
There are many prop bets available for things involving entertainers such as National Anthem singer Reba McEntire, halftime show artist Usher, and, of course, Taylor Swift.
Should you bet on any of them? Probably not.
However, if you are a mega fan of these people and feel like you have a good read on what they’ll do at the big game, then maybe there is some real value (and fun) to indulging in these props.
Here are a few examples of some you can find right now:
- Which team apparel will Drake wear to the game? Chiefs (-170) edge out 49ers (+130).
- Sportsbooks like over 86.5 seconds (-145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) for Reba McEntire’s National Anthem performance.
- You can bet on Usher’s 1st song with Love in the Club (+300) as the favorite at BetOnline.
- Bovada is sly by phrasing it as “Will Any Player Propose to His Girlfriend on the Field After the Game” with yes (+210) trailing no (-290).
Again, if you are a super fan of these people and think you have some extra knowledge, then feel free to play it.
Do Bet on the Longest Play
You can get equal odds (-115 for each team) on which team will have the longest play from scrimmage.
This feels like a good value for the 49ers, who have the better home-run hitters in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk.
The Chiefs are much more methodical than they were years ago. We did see the Ravens hit some big pass plays to Zay Flowers last week in the championship game. The Chiefs had that 44-yard pass to Tyreek Hill in Super Bowl LIV that was the play of the game, but he is obviously gone now.
This feels like good value for the 49ers, their YAC demons, and Kyle Shanahan’s ability to scheme open receivers on play-action shots.
Do Bet on the TV Ratings
Finally, you can find a prop for what the official viewership numbers will be for Super Bowl LVIII.
The ratings have reportedly been at their best for the playoffs and the championship games in particular since 1988. Kansas City’s win over Baltimore averaged 55.5 million viewers on CBS, the highest ever for an AFC Championship Game.
The ratings for Super Bowl 57, Chiefs vs. Eagles, was about 115 million viewers. So, if you add in the boost this year and the boost from Swifties tuning in to see their girl watch her man on the biggest stage, the Over feels like a very good value pick here.
Swift bringing in a record number of eyeballs is more reliable than Brock Purdy throwing multiple touchdowns against a top defense in the biggest game of his life.
NFL Pick: Over 116.5 Million Viewers (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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