Eagles vs. Rams Sunday Night Football Pick: Saquon Barkley or Matthew Stafford’s Receivers?
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Scott Kacsmar
- November 20, 2024
NFL Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL is right back to SoFi Stadium for Sunday Night Football this week. But instead of the Chargers, it’s the 5-5 Rams’ turn to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) in a matchup of NFC playoff hopefuls who can both win a division title this year.
These teams have both recently been in a Super Bowl, but this will only be their 2nd meeting since 2021 when Matthew Stafford and Jalen Hurts became the starting quarterbacks for these teams. They met last year in LA, a game that was 17-14 at halftime before the scoring dried up and the Eagles won 23-14. Those who bet the over that day might remember that scar well.
But the Rams are 4-1 since their bye week, and the Eagles haven’t lost since Week 4. The Rams have great receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but the Eagles have been playing some very solid defense this season and just held down the Commanders last Thursday night. The Eagles are getting a great season out of Saquon Barkley, who is starting to take over as the odds leader for Offensive Player of the Year and is even an MVP candidate.
The Eagles are a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5 points at the NFL odds boards at top-rated sportsbooks.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 08:20 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Will Eagles Run Wild on the Rams?
We knew the Rams could have some problems on defense this season after Hall of Famer Aaron Donald retired. The results have been underwhelming this season for the Rams, but it’s mostly been the pass defense that has struggled as they rank 29th in net yards per pass attempt.
The run defense, which comes into focus when you’re facing Hurts and Barkley, should be tested this week. Interestingly enough, the Rams allowed their 5-highest rushing totals in Weeks 1-5 this season when they were playing quality running games like the Lions, Packers, 49ers, and the Cardinals clipped them for 231 yards in Week 2.
But their last 5 games have been their best in terms of rushing yards, and they have played some teams who are not as consistent at running the ball with their backfield, including the Patriots, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Vikings.
Elite Weapons
The Eagles have more elite talent than most offenses in the league with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert finally all healthy to give Hurts and Barkley a lot of options to dominate with.
Hurts actually threw for 303 yards in last year’s meeting with Brown (127 yards) and Goedert (117) both exploding for over 115 yards, and Hurts also rushed for 72 yards and a touchdown in that game, one of the offense’s best games of 2023.
But this offense is performing a little better right now, and the Eagles have scored at least 26 points in 5 straight games. The offensive line is very good, and while the Rams are strong at getting pressure, they aren’t as great as finishing those plays off with sacks and affecting quarterbacks negatively enough. The Rams have also been near the top in missed tackles and allow a lot of YAC from missed tackles, so that could be a big game for Brown and Goedert again.
The Rams are 1-5 this season when allowing more than 22 points with the only win being that improbable comeback against the 49ers. You have to give the Eagles the edge with their offense against this defense.
Can Stafford Sling It Without Turnovers?
This has been a frustrating season for Matthew Stafford as his weapons have been in and out of the lineup, but the play hasn’t been consistent. Even when he had a healthy offense around him in his last home game, he couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone once in a bad loss against Miami. Then he made up for it with 4 touchdown passes against the Patriots, a worse pass defense, but you never quite know what you’re going to get with the Rams this year.
But the Eagles are playing inspired defense under new coordinator Vic Fangio. Sure, the 2023 Eagles gave up some yards and plays to Kupp and Nacua last year, but again, they shut them out in the 2nd half. This year’s defense is even better in coverage with the new additions at corner like rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, and Jalen Carter has gotten better in his 2nd year up front now that Fletcher Cox is retired.
The Eagles just forced Jayden Daniels of the Commanders into the worst game of his rookie season. The Eagles also held up well after a bad start against Joe Burrow and the Bengals, a similar offense to the Rams in terms of a quarterback throwing to 2 great wideouts. But the Bengals only scored 17 points at home against the Eagles.
Eagles’ Strengths
The pass rush for the Eagles isn’t anywhere close to what it was 2 years ago when they were in the Super Bowl, but the coverage is eons better than it was in 2023, and the Rams have been inconsistent at protecting Stafford too.
The Eagles have also been quite stout at stopping the run, ranked No. 7 in yards allowed and No. 8 in yards per carry. They have done well in the red zone, producing the 5th-best touchdown rate.
The Rams should make some plays with Kupp and Nacua, but it won’t be an easy game for this offense against the Eagles’ much improved defense.
Eagles vs. Rams (-2.5): Who Covers the Spread?
We don’t have to pretend the Eagles have been running through great teams during this winning streak, but there are also plenty of reasons to be skeptical about how good the 2024 Rams are. They did just lose to Miami at home 2 weeks ago, failing to score a touchdown.
As good as Stafford can be at times, we know he’s still a gunslinger at heart, he doesn’t move around as well as he used to, so he can be a sitting target and susceptible to an interception or two this season. The Eagles have mostly protected the ball with 3 giveaways during the 6-game winning streak. That’s going to be important as the Rams have forced 7 takeaways over the last 3 games.
Most games for the Rams this season have been close outside of the blowout loss in Arizona. But the Eagles are 5-1 in close games, and they have the right stuff on both sides of the ball to contain those wideouts and hit the Rams for big plays through the air and on the ground with Barkley.
We’re going to trust the Eagles to keep the winning streak going and cover the spread for your NFL picks this Sunday night.
NFL Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-120) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
