Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Early Preview: Can Philadelphia’s Firepower Ground Kansas City?

How Philadelphia Wins Games

The Eagles win by not having to rely on quarterback Jalen Hurts.

It does not constitute a valid point of criticism against the Eagles to indicate that Philadelphia won its first two playoff games, against the Packers and Rams, with Hurts throwing for no more than 131 yards in a game.

Hurts did not throw for so few yards because he’s incapable of performing better. Last week, against the Commanders, he threw for 246 yards. He is a mobile quarterback who has one of the best wide receivers in A.J. Brown and multiple other effective pass-catchers.

So, he can do a lot of damage to a defense. But mainly, he is a quarterback who helps sustain drives by not doing damage to his own offense. In addition to completing 69.6 percent of his passes in the postseason, he has thrown zero interceptions in this postseason.

Saquon Barkley

While Hurts will keep defenses honest, running back Saquon Barkley will win games. Hurts throws for so few yards in Philly victories because Barkley is just that elite. He is a big-time playmaker who is highly efficient on the ground.

In the postseason, he has amassed 442 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC in three games. If Saquon has a big game and Hurts continues to avoid making mistakes and to keep defenses honest, then the Eagles will have a great chance to win.

Chiefs Against Opposing Running Backs

Saquon is primed to have a great game against a Kansas City defense that is repeatedly struggling against opposing running backs:

• Buffalo running back James Cook ran for 85 yards on 6.5 YPC against the Chiefs.
• Houston running back Joe Mixon ran for 88 yards on 4.9 YPC in Kansas City’s other playoff game.

Kansas City’s vulnerability to opposing running backs extends to the end of the regular season, when Najee Harris achieved a solidly efficient rushing output for the Steelers. Running backs repeatedly thrive against Kansas City’s defense, so surely the best one in the game will do the same for the Eagles.

Quarterbacks Facing Spagnuolo

Kansas City’s well-regarded defensive coordinator has repeatedly allowed opposing quarterbacks to perform well:

• Last year, San Francisco’s Brock Purdy had his best playoff game, in terms of passer rating, against the Chiefs.
• Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady in 2020 and Hurts in 2022 both achieved a passer rating of well over 100 in their respective Super Bowl matchups against Spagnuolo’s defense.

Hurts Is Better Now

Hurts is also a better quarterback now than he was two years ago. In particular, he has improved tremendously against the blitz, which is important because the Chiefs blitz at one of the very highest rates.

Skeptics will claim that Hurts must struggle against the blitz because he had a poor outing against Tampa Bay’s blitz-heavy defense in the regular season. However, Hurts struggled because Brown was hurt. He struggled whenever Brown was absent regardless of whether the opposing team blitzed a lot or not.

When Brown returned for Philly’s game against Cleveland, another team that likes to blitz a lot, Hurts achieved a 126.1 passer rating. Against Cleveland’s blitz-heavy defense, Hurts was 6-for-12 for 105 passing yards and two touchdowns when he was blitzed.

Dallas Goedert

Hurts will not only be able to count extensively on the multiple-time All-Pro selection Brown. He’ll also be able to rely heavily on tight end Dallas Goedert. He caught seven passes for 85 yards last week against the Commanders and will build off that performance against Kansas City’s defense.

Throughout this year, the Chiefs have been one of the very worst teams facing tight ends. In the regular season, the Buccaneers took Kansas City to overtime because quarterback Baker Mayfield was able to lean on his favorite tight end.

Unlike the Bucs in that game, the Eagles are also well-stacked at wide receiver.

Philadelphia’s Elite Pass Defense

It is too difficult to pass on the underdog Eagles when you like their offense to do well. Their defense won’t allow too many points, because it does an elite job against the pass.

Whereas the Chiefs could run the ball well in their last Super Bowl matchup against the Eagles, running back Isiah Pacheco has suffered poor form since his injury, and Kareem Hunt is unable to be sufficiently explosive or efficient.

With Kansas City’s rush attack failing to pose a threat, the pressure is on Patrick Mahomes‘ shoulder to navigate Philadelphia’s second-ranked pass defense.

The Eagles have a stacked pass rush and excellent secondary that communicates well now that it understands their defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme. In the regular season, Philadelphia held the NFL’s passing leader Joe Burrow to his worst game in terms of passer rating. Most recently in this postseason, the Eagles did the same to Washington’s star quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Patrick Mahomes Will Struggle

Mahomes consistently struggles against the highest-ranked pass defenses. In this postseason, he threw for all of 177 passing yards against the Texans with their sixth-ranked pass defense. In the regular season, he had his worst game — 154 passing yards and a 44.4 passer rating — against San Francisco’s fourth-ranked pass defense.

Philadelphia’s defense will be the toughest that Mahomes has faced so far. It has proven to possess the ability to limit him.  Forcing Mahomes to perform poorly is tantamount to locking down Kansas City’s Mahomes-dependent offense.

Takeaway

The Eagles will be able to lean on their elite running back while Hurts will play a supporting role primarily by avoiding turnovers and by using Brown and Goedert to advance downfield and keep the defense honest.

Whereas the Eagles will score readily, Mahomes will struggle again to navigate a highly-ranked pass defense. The Chiefs’ offense won’t mount the firepower that Philadelphia’s will, especially with Barkley.

NFL Pick: Eagles +2 (-110) at BetOnline

Eagles +2 (-110)

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