Soccer Pick: Liverpool -1½ (-127) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We’ve studied the EPL betting markets at the top sportsbooks to formulate the best betting picks for this weekend’s fixtures involving Wolves vs. Newcastle, Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest, and more.
Continue reading for this weekend’s top soccer betting picks and from across the Premier League fixtures on October 28 & 29.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Newcastle United
- When: Saturday, October 28, 2023 - 12:30 PM EDT
- Where: Molineux Stadium
- Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Wolves W/D/W/D/L – Newcastle L/W/D/W/W
Wolves vs. Newcastle Stats, Odds & Prediction
- Newcastle competed in the mid-week Champions League schedule
- Newcastle owns the joint-third-best defense in the EPL (9 goals conceded)
- Under 2.5 goals has landed in 4 of the previous 6 encounters between these sides
Mid Table Averageness
Wolves currently occupy a comfortable position in mid-table, specifically 12th place, with seven points earned from matches against Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth. They are securely seven points ahead of the relegation zone and just one point behind Chelsea, who are in 10th place. After struggling with scoring goals during the 2022-23 season, Wolves consistently experience matches, with both teams finding the back of the net. In fact, O'Neil's team has seen this pattern in their last seven contests. Additionally, they have managed to score in 12 consecutive competitive matches when playing at home.
Champions League Blues
Before a midweek UCL downer versus Borussia Dortmund, Newcastle had a relatively easy victory over Crystal Palace, demolishing them 4-0. This impressive win has placed them sixth in the rankings with a remarkable +15 goal difference. So far, they have scored the highest number of goals in the league, with 24.
Despite this, Newcastle has only won one of their last six away matches in the Premier League. Their sole victory was an outstanding 8-0 win against Sheffield United last month. Additionally, they have avoided defeat in their previous three encounters with Wolves. Their most recent win against Wolves was a close 2-1 victory at St James' Park in March.
EPL Matchday 10 Betting Odds & Predictions
Unsurprisingly, the EPL betting odds have placed The Magpies as a significant betting favorite, but with only two days rest and a stubborn Wolves side ahead, there’s no value to be had on such an inflated price.
Newcastle is the Premier League’s highest-scoring team, so backing the under 2.5 goals has presented a huge risk to bettors. However, if there’s a game to capitalize on the under at plus-money value, it would be this one.
With tired legs and minimal time for Eddie Howe’s men to recuperate, coupled with Wolverhampton’s stubborn defense on home soil, under 2.5 for a buck-seventeen is too tempting to pass up.
Score Prediction: Wolves 1 – Newcastle 1
Soccer Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (+117) [1u wager returns 1.17u of profit] at Heritage Sports
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest
- When: Sunday, October 29, 2023 - 10:00 AM EDT
- Where: Anfield
- Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Liverpool W/D/W/L/W – Forest D/D/D/L/W
Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest Stats, Odds & Prediction
- Liverpool has covered the -1 ½ spread in all 6 of their competitive home games this term
- Nottingham Forest are winless in 4 of their 5 EPL road games this season
No Rest for the Wicked
At the time of writing, Liverpool have yet to compete in their Thursday night Europa League meeting with Toulouse. And although tired legs could damage The Red's output similarly to the Newcastle breakdown above, they’re free from travel and face a lackluster Forest squad that will unlikely present many troubles for Jurgen Klopp’s unit.
Liverpool's most recent victory against Merseyside rivals Everton solidifies their unbeaten streak in 19 out of their last 20 Premier League matches, showcasing an impressive record.
Their recent performance has declined, as they have only secured a win in 1 out of their last 3 Premier League games. They suffered a loss against Tottenham Hotspur and were held to a draw at Brighton.
A deeper inspection of the trends does show that Liverpool has remained unbeaten in their last 16 home league games and has triumphed by a margin of 2 or more goals in each of their previous four matches at Anfield.
Looking for the Upset
Nottingham Forest isn’t far from the drop zone, but despite a weak table positioning, they’ve been far from simple to defeat. Looking at the bigger picture, the Midlands club has avoided defeat in 5 of their last 6 EPL fixtures, and they’ll be eager to upset a tired Liverpool squad.
Unfortunately, Forest take the trip to Anfield with an injured trio of Felipe Monteiro, Taiwo Awoniyi, and Gonzalo Montiel. Making matters worse, Nuno Tavares, Danilo, Omar Richards, and George Shelvey are also questionable for this meeting.
EPL Matchday 10 Betting Odds & Predictions
The EPL betting odds slapped a massive moneyline price on Liverpool, and this was expected. The Reds have one of the most impressive home records this season, and those hoping Forest to damage this trend should think again.
The key trend in this fixture is Liverpool’s streak of winning at home by two goals. All six competitive fixtures at Anfield ended with Klopp’s team owning a two-goal gap, so let’s back this to continue with a value-worthy -1½ point spread.
Score Prediction: Liverpool 3 – Nottingham Forest 1
Soccer Pick: Liverpool -1½ (-127) [1.27u wager returns 1u of profit] at Heritage Sports
Extra Premier League Bets to Beat the Bookie
Brighton vs. Fulham
Sunday, October 29, 2023 - 10:00 AM EDT
- Brighton ML (-183) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Manchester United vs. Manchester City
Sunday, October 29, 2023 - 11:30 AM EDT
- Under 3 Goals (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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