Top Premier League Picks
Soccer Pick: Manchester City/Brighton Both Teams to Score (-189) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
Soccer Pick: Chelsea/Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals (-105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We’ve studied the EPL betting markets to formulate the best betting picks for this weekend’s fixtures involving Manchester City vs. Brighton, Chelsea vs. Arsenal, and more.
Continue reading for this weekend’s top soccer betting picks from across the Premier League fixtures set to occur on October 21 & 22.
Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Information
- When: Saturday, October 21, 2023 - 10:00 AM EDT
- Where: Etihad Stadium
- Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Man. City L/L/W/W/W – Brighton D/L/W/W/W
Stats, Odds, & Prediction
- Both teams have scored in 8 of Brighton’s last 9 road games.
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Man. City’s 3 EPL home games this term.
Game Analysis
A Must-Win for Guardiola’s Men
After enduring consecutive losses in the Premier League to Wolves and Arsenal, Manchester City will be eager to bounce back against Brighton. The team had an impressive start to the season, winning their first six games and only allowing three goals. However, they struggled in their recent away matches.
Thankfully, the international break provided a much-needed opportunity for Pep Guardiola to regroup. He can now count on the return of three key players - John Stones, Bernardo Silva, and Rodri, who is back after serving a three-game suspension.
Manchester City has emerged victorious in their previous 13 home league games, showcasing their strength after facing obstacles. Erling Haaland, however, has experienced a decline in goal-scoring form, as he has been unable to find the back of the net in his last three starts for City. Nonetheless, his recent double for Norway against Cyprus may have revitalized his focus.
A Dip in Form
Conversely, Brighton find themselves in a similar situation, seeking a shift in momentum after failing to secure a victory in their past four matches across all competitions. Brighton's attractive style of football and proactive strategies under Roberto De Zerbi have received well-deserved acclaim. However, they have been conceding goals too easily.
De Zerbi's team has allowed 16 goals in eight league games, and they have yet to achieve a clean sheet this season. These defensive vulnerabilities are bound to be exploited by a determined City side eager to return to their winning ways.
Nevertheless, Brighton will present their own challenges on the counter. Brighton currently leads the league in scoring, having netted 21 goals in eight matches. More notably, in every game, both teams have found the back of the net.
EPL Matchday 9 Betting Odds & Predictions
Unsurprisingly, the Premier League odds have placed Guardiola’s men with a favorable price, but we’d be foolish to back -235 during City’s current downtrend.
Instead, support a Brighton road game to see both teams score for the ninth time in ten games, and don’t be surprised if the home side snatch three points behind a 90-minute game filled with goals.
Score Prediction: Manchester City 3 – Brighton 2
Soccer Pick: Both Teams to Score/Yes (-189) [1.89u wager returns 1u of profit] at Everygame
Chelsea FC vs. Arsenal FC
Information
- When: Saturday, October 21, 2023 - 12:30 PM EDT
- Where: Stamford Bridge
- Win/Loss Record (Last 5): Chelsea W/W/L/D/L – Arsenal W/W/D/W/W
Stats, Odds, & Prediction
- 3 of Arsenal’s previous 5 away games ended with Under 2.5 goals.
- Chelsea has seen Under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions.
Game Analysis
Defending the Unbeaten Streak
Arsenal is one of just two teams in the Premier League that have not been defeated this season. After their recent victory over Manchester City, the Gunners should feel confident as they prepare to face their London rivals, Chelsea.
Under the guidance of Mikel Arteta, Arsenal has only dropped points in two matches so far, resulting in drawn games. Their away performances have been particularly impressive, securing clean-sheet wins against Bournemouth, Everton, and Crystal Palace.
Given their strong start to the season, Arsenal is considered the favorite to come out on top versus their capital foes. However, there have been indications that Chelsea's boss, Mauricio Pochettino, may be progressing in resolving any issues his team has been facing.
Turning the Tide
Chelsea's current point deficit is 4.4 points, indicating that they have not performed as well as they should have. Additionally, their expected goals (xG) metric of 15.79 is significantly higher than their actual goal tally of 11.
This suggests that Chelsea has been more effective in creating scoring opportunities than their current results reflect. However, as the season progresses, these discrepancies should balance out.
During their inaugural home game of the season, Chelsea performed admirably against Liverpool, with the match ending in a 1-1 draw. Considering their performance in this game, another low-scoring outcome could be their most viable path to victory instead of an open offensive.
EPL Matchday 9 Betting Odds & Predictions
The best sportsbooks are showing -105 on the Under 2.5 goals, a price that suggests they know something we don’t when considering Arsenal’s high-scoring affairs this term.
Deploying a defensive strategy to frustrate The Gunners worked perfectly for Chelsea in this fixture last term (1-0 win), and I expect a similar game plan from The Blues this weekend.
Score Prediction: Chelsea 1 – Arsenal 1
Soccer Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-104) [1.04u wager returns 1u of profit] at Heritage Sports
Extra Premier League Bets to Beat the Bookie
Newcastle United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC
- Newcastle United (-211) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC
- Aston Villa (-105) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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