Falcons vs. Commanders Sunday Night Football Pick: Roll the Dice With Penix
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Jason Lake
- December 24, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Falcons +4 (–105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
It’s The Michael Penix Jr. Show! With your host, Michael Penix Jr.!
Okay, it’s actually Sunday Night Football on NBC/Peacock. And if there’s a young quarterback stud that everyone’s there to witness, it’s Jayden Daniels, who has the Washington Commanders (10-5 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) on the brink of clinching a playoff berth. But what if we told you Michael Penix has outperformed Daniels this year?
That’s what the stats say – some of them, at least. It’s a very small sample size of one start and two brief mop-up appearances for the Atlanta Falcons (8-7 SU, 6-8-1 ATS), and that start was last week against the last-place New York Giants (+10 away), where Penix threw zero touchdown passes in a 34-7 romp. Maybe we’re over-reacting a bit with the Daniels comparison.
Maybe. But if you compare Penix with the man he replaced, Kirk Cousins? Then you can see why the Falcons have suddenly come back to life in the NFC South. We might have looked elsewhere for our Week 17 NFL picks when Atlanta opened at +3.5, but we’ll give them a spin now that they’re available at +4 with –105 juice on some of our top-rated sportsbooks.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 29, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at Northwest Stadium
Is Michael Penix Any Good?
Good enough to win the 2023 Maxwell Award as the best all-around player in college football. Alas, Penix (Washington Huskies) had to settle for second place behind Daniels (LSU Tigers) in the Heisman Trophy vote, but it was a close finish. I blame East Coast bias.
The Falcons thought highly enough of Penix to draft him with the No. 8 overall pick despite having already signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180-million deal with $100 million in guaranteed money. That contract may have been risky, but hedging with Penix looks a lot smarter now than it may have in April.
Is Penix Better Than Daniels?
Let’s file this under “Remains to Be Seen.” In the meantime, here are the Expected Points Added per dropback for each of these gentlemen, as per nfelo:
- Penix: plus-0.31 EPA (No. 3 overall)
- Daniels: plus-0.22 (No. 6)
- Cousins: plus-0.07 (No. 21)
Even though Daniels is the only dual threat in this trio, Penix has thus far made up for his relative lack of foot speed with a cannon of a left arm – and not a loose cannon, either. Penix is one of the brightest guys on the field, already a young veteran at age 24 with six years of college experience (the first four at Indiana) and poise for days.
Penix was there for Atlanta at No. 8 because he suffered two torn ACLs and a separated AC joint playing for the Hoosiers. Otherwise, he likely would have landed somewhere in the top three, maybe even at No. 1 ahead of Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears), Daniels and Drake Maye (New England Patriots).
Let’s see if we can still “buy low” on Penix in Week 17.
The Pick
The obvious danger here is that we’re jumping on the Michael Penix bandwagon a little too early. Washington’s pass defense (plus-0.02 EPA per pass, No. 10) is far better than what the Giants (plus-0.19 EPA, No. 31) threw at Penix last week. For that matter, the Falcons (plus-0.11 EPA, No. 23) are less than restaurant-quality on that side of the ball.
Our ace in the hole: Washington’s offensive line.
What looked like an elite unit earlier in the year has struggled the past two games, giving up eight sacks to New Orleans in Week 16 while generating just 113 yards rushing (81 of those by Daniels) against Philadelphia in Week 17.
Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be under your tree this year.
NFL Pick: Falcons +4 (–105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
