NCAAF Pick: Florida State Under 10 (-150) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The FSU Seminoles earned ten wins in Mike Norvell’s third season as head coach. Will the Seminoles achieve similar success in 2023? This year, the top offshore sportsbooks are setting the over/under at 10 victories for the season.
Key Facts
- Mike Norvell has gone 56-31 in eight years as head coach in college football.
- FSU has two difficult matchups against SEC opponents this season.
- FSU added three wins against significant opponents who had losing records at the end of the year last year.
Is the Hype Real?
The Florida State Seminoles went 10-3 overall last season while finishing the ACC 5-3. Mike Norvell is headed into his fourth season as head coach, where he’s gone 18-16 with the Seminoles.
Norvell took over this program when it was in the dumps, but he’s quickly rebuilt FSU into one of the biggest powerhouses in football this season. The Seminoles are a top-eight team, according to the pre-season Coaches Poll. They’ve got plenty of talent and hype around the team.
However, let’s take a step back for a second. Florida State defeated teams like Miami, Florida, and Oklahoma. All three of those teams are big market names, but those teams also all finished with losing records last year.
In terms of talent, Florida State compares to most teams. They could win the ACC this season, but a National Championship is highly unlikely for this team.
How Good Is Jordan Travis?
Jordan Travis is from Florida State. Travis is a super accurate thrower with plenty of speed to keep teams off-balance. The pressure never gets to Travis, and he’s capable of making big-time plays on third down.
The Seminoles need to keep him healthy. He threw for over 3,200 yards and added 24 touchdowns with just five interceptions last season. Travis finished 7th in college football with an 85.8 QBR. This will be the quarterback’s senior season. He hadn’t thrown for more than 1,539 yards before last season. Therefore, Florida State will look for some consistency out of Travis heading into this year.
Trey Benson will get starts at running back after Treshaun Ward left for Kansas State. Benson should run behind an offensive line that is better than last year. They added transfers from UTEP and Colorado and will have Bless Harris back from an injury. Analysts have predicted that the FSU offensive line will be its biggest strength.
Can FSU Consistently Stop The Run?
The Florida State Seminoles were so much better than years past, and it’s hard to find anything wrong. They won ten games last year. Four years ago, FSU fans would’ve laughed if you had predicted ten wins in year three under Norvell.
But the run defense can get tighter. The defensive line will need a lot of solid production out of Jared Verse. He led the team with nine sacks and had 17 tackles for loss. He’ll play alongside Fabian Lovett and Braden Fiske, who should instantly produce from Western Michigan.
The linebacker group between Tatum Bethune and Kalen DeLoach will play great, but when it comes time to rotate guys, the linebacker group isn’t solid in depth.
But if FSU can get pressure on the quarterback at a rapid pace, the secondary should shine. Omarion Cooper left for Colorado, but Renardo Green, Jarrian Jones, and transfer Fentrell Cypress should dominate at cornerback.
Another 10 Win Season?
The Florida State Seminoles will take on LSU in Orlando’s first game of the season. Although Florida State won last year’s game, LSU is the favorite to win this one. I already wrote an LSU preview and believe LSU will edge out Florida State in that game.
However, Florida State will likely defeat Southern Miss (Week 2) and Boston College (Week 3) but then lose to Clemson on the road on September 23.
At 2-2, Florida State should earn victories over Virginia Tech (Week 6), Syracuse (Week 7), Duke (Week 8), Wake Forest (Week 9), Pittsburgh (Week 10), Miami (Week 11), and North Alabama (Week 12).
Then they’ll face Florida (Week 13) on the road to finish the regular season. While the Seminoles look better on paper, winning a road game against the Gators is a tough environment. Florida might not be nearly as good as previous years in 2023, but they will be ready for this rivalry matchup in late November.
The Pick
Therefore, I’ve got FSU winning nine games this season. They’ll lose two SEC games and an ACC matchup against Clemson.
Nine wins is still a great season and if FSU only losses one game in conference play, they could seriously play for an ACC title this season.
Keep that in mind for your NCAAF picks, but I’m taking the Under for the FSU win total.
NCAAF Pick: Florida State Under 10 (-150) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product
Calculators
