Florida vs. Auburn NCAA Tournament Final Four Best Bet

Health

Before digging into this game, we need to recognize that key players are hurt. Florida’s Alex Condon is battling an ankle injury. Auburn’s Johni Broome injured his elbow. Condon played against Texas Tech. While Broome returned to the game and contributed right away with a three-pointer, he favored his hurt arm.

With so much time until the Final Four, I anticipate both players being fully recovered and will analyze this game accordingly.

But, so that we as responsible bettors cover all the important angles, it needs to be said that if Broome, the SEC Player of the Year, should miss the game, then Florida will cover the short spread. If Broome isn’t physically fit to exert his usual dominance, then Florida’s defense will have a manageable task.

Florida’s Interior Defense

Assuming that Broome is ready to go, Florida will not be able to secure its interior on defense.

Against Texas Tech, it was worrying to see Florida fail to contain JT Toppin and Darrion Williams for long stretches of the game. Both players combined for 43 points and were crucial to Texas Tech’s ability to score 79 points.

The Gators are either going to suffer extensively in the interior or they are going to expend extra resources to protect the interior and then, as they did against Texas Tech, allow open three-pointers.

Auburn’s Offensive Balance

Auburn can and will do a better job of scoring than Texas Tech.

The Tigers have better inside scoring in the form of their superstar Broome. But they also have four different players who convert over 37 percent of their three-point attempts. In this respect, they resemble the Kentucky team that dropped 106 on the Gators.

While Florida won at Auburn 90-81, the Gators overachieved on defense because they were playing with a chip on their shoulder after recently being blown out by Tennessee.

Auburn still scored 81 points, but it is capable of scoring more points with Denver Jones — who scored two points in that game — peaking and showing vastly better form in the NCAA Tournament, as is fellow guard Tahaad Pettiford. The Tigers also underperformed from behind the arc. They were simply due to lose at some point.

Florida’s Versatility

The Gators will again attain a high point total because of how well their offense matches up against Auburn’s defense.

Auburn struggles to deal with versatile bigs, with one example being Alabama’s Grant Nelson, who achieved excellent offensive ratings in both games against them.

Florida is well-laden with the versatile sort of big who can shoot threes — better than Nelson does, in fact — and get to the basket.

Condon and Thomas Haugh, one of the heroes in Florida’s comeback against Texas Tech, are huge here. Haugh’s big shots and of course superstar point guard Walter Clayton’s clutch play down the stretch allowed Florida to score 84 points despite playing so poorly for so much of the game.

The Gators, with Clayton, who scored 30 points against the Red Raiders and is simply unstoppable and with their versatile bigs will attain a very high point total against an Auburn defense that they scored 90 on even without Alijah Martin, who missed that game and regularly scores between ten and twenty points.

As is the case with Auburn’s offense against Florida’s defense, Florida has too many ways of beating Auburn’s defense.

NCAAB Pick: Over 160.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Over 160.5 (-110)

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