Florida vs. Houston March Madness Championship Game Best Bets
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LT Profits
- April 6, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Houston +1 (-109) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Well, after two exciting games in the Final Four that were both in doubt until the final moments, the NCAA Tournament Championship Game matchup on Monday night is now set with Florida taking on Houston.
We are here with two best bets for the title game based mostly on our proprietary model. That model has plays on both the side and total that we feel both hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. And while we feel that the edge is bigger on the side, we still think there is also enough value to make the total actionable.
Florida Gators vs. Houston Cougars
Monday, April 07, 2025 – 08:50 PM EDT at Alamodome
We said prior to the Final Four that we thought that the Houston vs. Duke semifinal was the pseudo–National Championship Game. Well, we are sticking to that belief by backing the Cougars to cut down the nets on Monday night, while also expecting the contest to sneak Over the total.
Defense and 3s
Houston upset the overall top seeds from Duke 70-67 on Saturday, extending the nation’s longest winning streak to 18 straight games while improving to 35-4 overall. Moreover, it is amazing that they can be 38-1 or even 39-0 with a rad more luck! That is because the last three losses all came in overtime, with the only non-overtime loss coming by five points the second game of the season to their fellow Final Four participants Auburn.
Most people are aware of the popular adage “Defense wins championships”, and the Cougars are doing their part to help prove that is the case. They got to this point by leading the country in defensive efficiency, and they also led the nation in the fewest points allowed at a miniscule 58.5 points per game.
Yes, they are facing a Florida offense ranked second nationally in offense efficiency behind only Duke. But remember, Houston just held that Blue Devils’ team that literally finished with the most efficient offense in the history of Kenpom at 130.0 points per 100 possessions to 67 points. Thus, we think the Cougars’ defense is up for this challenge.
And while the defense deservedly gets most of the acclaim, the offense is also 10th in efficiency mainly due to now leading the land in 3-point shooting at 39.9%. The concern there before Saturday was that success rate was over limited possessions, with Houston ranked 360th out of 364 Division I teams in Tempo Rating. Well, they faced a faster-paced Duke team and shot 45.5% (10-for-22) beyond the arc!
Good, But Not Quite AS Good
Now, take nothing away from Florida as they are an identical 35-4 after knocking off Auburn in an all-SEC battle 79-73 on Saturday. They have won 16 of their last 17 games and finished second in the best conference in the country behind only that same Auburn team that they just beat for the second time this year.
And they too have excelled in the efficiency department, with their second ranking offensively accomplished by ranking ninth defensively. Still, they have not been great in the first halves of games during this NCAA Tournament, and another slow start here would most likely be a death blow against a generational Houston defense.
But putting that aside, the Gators do not figure to even sniff their scoring average of 85.4 points per game against the best defense in the country that just held Duke to 67 points. Granted, Florida’s ninth ranking in defensive efficiency usually adds great balance, but this is a rare case where their defense pales compared to their opponent.
Also, as great as the offense is, the Gators are only 70th in 3-point shooting at 35.8%, giving the Cougars a decided edge beyond the arc too.
Best Bet Side
Florida is currently posted as a minuscule favorite for this game, but there is a reason that Houston is #2 in Kenpom while the Gators are #3. The Cougars are simply better than Florida in what we cited as their two biggest keys to victory: defense and 3-point shooting.
Bet on Houston to win the 2024-25 NCAA Basketball National Championship Monday night.
Predicted Score: Houston 75 – Florida 70
NCAAB Pick: Houston +1 (-109) at Bookmaker
Betting the Total
Our preferred play here is Houston ATS, but we are also recommending a small play on this game going Over the total. We see a similar path to this bet cashing as in the Houston vs. Duke semifinal game. To wit, we foresee the defense of the Cougars keying the victory but the pace of the game to allow Houston to hit enough 3-pointers for the contest to sneak Over the total late, which has us adding a half-unit play.
NCAAB Pick: Over 141.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
