Top NCAAF Pick: Under 46.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Clemson Tigers will look to continue their four-game winning streak in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl against the Kentucky Wildcats. Will the transfer portal and opt-outs hurt Clemson in its quest to finish the season strong? Let’s go through this Bowl Season odds and find out which team will excel at our main offshore sportsbooks.
Clemson Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Friday, December 29, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
The Clemson Tigers will take on the Kentucky Wildcats in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl on Saturday, December 29.
Unfortunately for Clemson, the Tigers are going to lose a lot of pieces for this bowl game. They’ve got six significant players in the transfer portal and have already addressed three players who will opt out of this game for the NFL Draft. Clemson has other players who are potential opt-outs too.
Meanwhile, Kentucky is going through the same thing. They’ve got six important players heading into the transfer portal and multiple players joining the NFL Draft. The difference is that Kentucky’s Ray Davis and Andru Phillips will still play in the bowl game despite entering the NFL Draft.
Still, Clemson was the better team analytically this season. The Tigers won eight of 12 games and scored 29.17 points. The defense held opponents to 19.92 points per game. Kentucky didn’t do the same. The Wildcats scored 28.58 points per game but also gave up nearly 25 points per game.
The Tigers finished the regular season with four straight wins, including a win against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and South Carolina. On the other hand, Kentucky finished with a road win against Louisville, 38-31, that essentially shook up the entire College Football Playoff.
Defensive Shifts, Offensive Power
Clemson’s defense was sensational this year. They finished the season holding South Carolina to seven points. However, starting safety Andrew Mukuba entered the transfer portal. CB Nate Wiggins, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., and DL Ruke Orhorhoro opted out. But Clemson typically develops defense at a high level. The next guy up should still be good for this defense. The run defense held teams to 116.5 yards a game. That’s critical going up against Kentucky.
The Wildcats weren’t able to get much going in the passing game behind Devin Leary. But Ray Davis was a stud running back who added 1,066 yards with 13 touchdowns on 186 carries for Kentucky this year. While he’s not going to be back next year, he will play in this game. It’s still more likely that Clemson plays well defensively against Davis and the Kentucky defense.
Meanwhile, Clemson’s offense won’t have WR Beaux Collins, OL Mitchell Mayes, and TE Sage Ennis. However, Cade Klubnik will play at quarterback, and the two running backs, Phil Mafah and Will Shipley, will return at running back.
The loss of Collins will hurt. However, Tyler Brown will still line up. He’s a freshman and led the team in receptions this season.
Kentucky allowed 220.67 yards in the air per game. However, the Wildcats were just as good against the run this season, holding teams to 113.83 yards. Clemson, like Kentucky, is more efficient on the ground. The Tigers have more weapons running the football and should beat up this Kentucky defense that allowed 31 points to Louisville.
To put that into perspective, the Cardinals couldn’t score anything against Florida State in the ACC Championship. Therefore, I’ll back Clemson at -7.
NCAAF Pick: Clemson -7 (-110) via BetOnline
What About The Total?
I spent the entire article talking about Clemson’s defense. Sure, they’ll be without some big playmakers due to the transfer portal and opt-outs. However, Clemson has the depth at defense that not most teams have.
Kentucky isn’t a major threat in the air. The Wildcats earned only 191.83 yards per game, throwing the ball. Therefore, they’re going to want to rely on Ray Davis to run the ball effectively. However, Clemson’s run defense was still one of the best in the nation. It’s hard to find holes against the Clemson defensive line.
Meanwhile, both teams have disciplined defenses. They don’t miss tackles often and have respectable pass rushes and run defenses. Kentucky also has a secondary that can make some plays and keep the ball out of the endzone.
Neither team will rely heavily on the arm of their quarterback. Kentucky and Clemson are much better when running the football. However, Clemson’s defense against the run will be the difference. Therefore, we’ll back the Under 46.5 in this TaxSlayer Gator Bowl.
NCAAF Pick: Under 46.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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