Georgia vs. Gonzaga March Madness First Round Best Bet

We think there will be a surprise in store in the 8/9 matchup from the Midwest Region on Thursday. We are taking the points with Georgia when they face Gonzaga in the Battle of the Bulldogs while calling for the upset.

Not as Good as Past Years?

Gonzaga is still probably the best non-major school in the country and is currently 25-8, but we strongly disagree with their ranking of ninth overall in Kenpom. Yes, we are aware those ratings are mechanical and that these Bulldogs rank ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency. But unlike past seasons, we question the quality of their wins.

The Zags always have a strong non-conference schedule every year, and that has generally served them well come tournament time. However, they have not fared as well against top teams this season as in the past.

If you include their in-conference opponents from Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga had six games during the regular season against teams currently in the Kenpom Top 40. They went just 1-5 in those games with the win coming in the first game of the year against 29th ranked Baylor. Yes, they got revenge against Saint Mary’s in the WCC Championship Game, but that was not exactly a dominant win either with a 58-51 score.

Also consider their other three losses came to teams outside the Kenpom Top 50, which is more losses than they typically had against those types of teams in the past. They now tale on a Georgia team ranked 34th that comes out of the best conference in the country.

Size and Defense Big Keys

The other Bulldogs here from Georgia are 20-12, and while they went 8-10 inside the SEC, they still merit their 34th Kenpom ranking just based on being competitive against a killer schedule. And this is a team that went 12-1 in non-conference play before the SEC Wars commenced, losing only to #29 Marquette.

The Dawgs also have the best win for either of these teams beating the top seeds from the West Region and #2 ranked Florida 88-83 on February 25th. They scored 88 points against a team ranked ninth in the land in defensive efficiency, sixth in eFG% allowed and picked by many to reach the NCAA Championship Game, if not to win it all.

However, the strength of the Georgia team is defense, as at 26th in defensive efficiency and 29th in eFG%, they have a better defense than any team Gonzaga has beaten this season. And the Dawgs certainly have the size to cause the Zags issues with the ninth tallest team in the country.

The Pick

As much as we respect the Gonzaga program, their lack of quality wins this year is alarming and now facing an SEC team with the best defense they have faced all season does not help. Our official bet here is taking the points with Georgia, but we also picked them to win outright in the BMR Forum March Madness Bracket Contest.

Predicted Score: Georgia 77 – Gonzaga 75

NCAAB Pick: Georgia +6 (-106) at Heritage Sports

Georgia +6 (-106)

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