Georgia vs. Ole Miss College Football Week 11 Betting Picks 

Is Ole Miss Overrated?

After demolishing its non-conference competition, Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky. This upset loss initiated discussions about whether the Rebels might be a team that is likely to be overrated by oddsmakers.

However, this loss initiated a pattern that explains the extent of their struggles in SEC play and that, ultimately, helps explain why they enjoy a much more positive outlook against Georgia on Saturday.

Kentucky upset Ole Miss on the road because, as the adage goes, “defense travels.” Location was really irrelevant to the outcome of this game, even though oddsmakers adjusted the spread because the game took place at Ole Miss.

To be specific, the Wildcats rank toward the very top in sack rate. Their pass rush was highly disruptive and, as such, formed the biggest reason for Kentucky’s ability to limit Ole Miss’ point total.

Adapting to Strong Pass Rush Teams

Led by an offensive genius in Lane Kiffin, the Rebels did subsequently improve against teams with a strong pass rush, although it still proved to be a problem.

While Ole Miss triumphed, by a score of 27-3, against a South Carolina team that boasts a similarly high-ranking pass rush, it lost by three at LSU — the Tigers’ pass rush also has an elite ranking, and it helped LSU win 29-26.

Oklahoma, which, I kid you not, also possesses an elite-ranking pass rush, was a softer test because of its emaciated offense. The Rebels won 26-14. This last Saturday showed what the Rebels can do against an SEC foe that does not have such a high-ranking pass rush.

Spearheaded by quarterback Jaxson Dart’s absurd 515-yard passing performance, Ole Miss scored 63 points in a blowout win at Arkansas despite not having its top wide receiver Tre Harris, who was listed as ‘questionable’ for the game and ultimately did not play.

While beating Arkansas might not impress many, the Razorbacks had not previously allowed nearly such a high point total. For example, they had held Tennessee to 14 points.

The takeaway is this: led by Dart, Ole Miss has an extremely potent offense with plenty of weapons to support Dart. This offense will have a great outlook against a defense with a non-elite pass rush.

Georgia’s Vulnerable Pass Defense

In terms of sack rate, Georgia ranks dozens of spots behind the defenses of Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma. With a non-elite pass defense, Georgia’s defense is one that Ole Miss can thrive against.

The Bulldogs have already proven to have a highly vulnerable defense this year, in stark contrast to prior seasons.

Struggles Against Mobile Quarterbacks

Partly due to their relatively weak pass rush, mobile quarterbacks have plagued them, which is relevant to know because Dart is a characteristically very mobile quarterback — he ran for 136 yards against Georgia Tech last year, for example.

For example, Georgia conceded 41 points to an Alabama team that, as one would expect with such a high point total, covered the spread and was led by mobile quarterback Jalen Milroe.

Milroe was extremely efficient through the air. He amassed 374 passing yards. He also ran for 117 yards and two touchdowns on 7.3 YPC.

Recurring QB Issues

Georgia has shown problems defending quarterbacks who can run at all even when those quarterbacks are much less talented than Milroe.

For example, when Georgia gave up 31 points to Mississippi State, quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. achieved what was his longest run of the season.

Georgia’s cornerback play is also not what it once was. Its cornerbacks get beat deep, as evident in Alabama’s game-winning touchdown. They are not so reliable in pass coverage.

Because opposing quarterbacks have time to throw before they get sacked and because they can pick on Georgia’s cornerbacks, the Bulldogs rank middle-of-the-road in pass defense.

Georgia’s Problematic Offense

The Bulldogs will need to attain an extremely high point total in order to cover the spread. However, their problems on offense are too numerous.

Carson Beck’s Performance

For Georgia, quarterback Carson Beck’s draft stock is plummeting. He is exhibiting a significant interception problem, and he is not nearly as efficient as before. Relative to last year, his completion percentage is down around six points. He has also easily exceeded his interception total from all of last year.

Now, it’s not all his fault. He can’t do anything when his wide receivers run the wrong routes or drop passes.

But some of it is his fault because he needs to improve his decision-making and accuracy.

Struggling Pass Attack

The exact distribution of blame is besides the point. Georgia’s pass attack will spend a lot of time in a given game looking rather broken and incompetent. It is not one that will keep pace with someone like Dart.

I don’t like the Bulldogs’ offense in this game also because its rush attack has a negative outlook against what is one of the very highest-ranking rush defenses.

Moreover, the rib injury sustained by Georgia’s leading rusher, Trevor Etienne, is worth monitoring.

Ole Miss consistently limits opponents to low point totals because it makes them rather one-dimensional by taking away their run game, so Beck’s deficiencies this year will prove highly consequential in a terrible way for Georgia.

The Pick

Ole Miss will score a lot of points on what is a uniquely vulnerable Georgia defense that lacks the pass rush to bother the Rebels and that is vulnerable in the back end.

Georgia lacks the consistent competence and firepower on offense to keep up with the Rebels.

NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss +6.5 (-110) at Bovada 

Ole Miss +6.5 (-110)

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