Georgia vs. Texas College Football Week 8 Free Picks

Georgia’s Vulnerable Defense

Those who like the Bulldogs in this matchup will likely want to lean on Georgia’s longstanding reputation for defense.

Last year, belief in the quality of Georgia’s defense was valid, as the Bulldogs allowed 16.3 points per game. We need to catch up with the times, however.

The Bulldogs have become vulnerable on defense. Most recently, they allowed 31 points to Mississippi State. wThis is a troubling result considering that Mississippi State had only scored more than 30 points against Eastern Kentucky.

Georgia’s Diminished Secondary Quality

In particular, Georgia’s pass defense is vulnerable. As evident in sack percentage, it is struggling to get sacks.

Last year, it had sufficient quality in its secondary to, for the most part, compensate for the deficiencies of its pass rush. But now also its secondary is deficient.

In the offseason, the Bulldogs’ secondary lost three players to the NFL. The largely new secondary lacks the same quality. It really misses former cornerbacks like current Jacksonville Jaguar Tyson Campbell.

This group lacks star-power and features struggling players, such as cornerback Daylen Everette, who was one of Georgia’s few returning starters in the secondary, yet he is someone whom offenses target with great success. Its most promising cornerback is arguably Ellis Robinson, but he is merely a developing freshman.

Meanwhile, its other cornerbacks have proven to be vulnerable, including Julian Humphrey, who, due in part to his difficulty in contested ball situations, gave up the winning touchdown to Alabama.

What Opposing Quarterbacks Are Doing

When Georgia gave up 31 points to Mississippi State last week, the latter team’s quarterback had the best game of his career.

Though just a freshman, and a freshman who entered the Georgia game with a completion rate of just over 50 percent, Mississippi State quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for a season-high 306 yards and accumulated three passing touchdowns, which are his only passing touchdowns of the season.

Georgia has mostly faced soft tests from opposing quarterbacks. Its one dangerous threat so far was Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, who was highly efficient as he threw for 374 passing yards, helping his Crimson Tide amass 41 points against the Bulldogs.

Texas’ Pass Attack

In terms of quarterback and wide receiver quality, Texas’ pass attack will pose the toughest test that Georgia’s secondary will encounter all season.

The Longhorns are led at quarterback by Quinn Ewers, who owns a 175.2 passer rating this season despite having had to face the likes of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Ewers has help from a stacked group of wide receivers that includes Isaiah Bond, who has managed to run as fast as 22 mph in a game this season.

Now, Bond left last week’s game early due to an ankle injury that he sustained, but Texas’ wide receiver group remains sufficiently deep that it did not miss him during its blowout of Oklahoma.

Whether Bond plays or not is rather immaterial, given Ewers’ ability to lean on so many other good receivers, such as sprint star and well-reputed transfer pickup Matthew Golden and former five-star recruit Ryan Wingo. Bond’s injury is in any case not believed to be serious.

Milroe matched up well against Georgia’s pass defense because Milroe likes to lean on going deep. This is something that Texas can replicate, as evident in the high number of chunk plays achieved by its pass attack even against Michigan’s strong defensive back room.

Texas’ Pass Defense

In contrast with Georgia, the Longhorns have one of the best pass defenses, as measured by statistics like opposing passing yards per game. The Longhorns have recruited extremely well at the cornerback position.

Cornerbacks and other defenders certainly want to come to a Texas team that has a great defensive coordinator in Johnny Nansen, whose extreme game-planning and tactical competence enabled him to take Arizona to unforeseen places last year.

PFF grades attest to the excellence of cornerback Jahdae Barron. Fellow cornerback Malik Muhammad has done a great job of limiting the opponent’s passer rating when targeted.

Led by these two cornerbacks, Texas’ secondary has the pieces to contain a Georgia wide receiver room that lost two players to the NFL last year and whose top returning talent will be overmatched by Texas’ high-caliber secondary.

Arian Smith is known to have potentially game-changing speed for Georgia’s wide receiver group, but Barron has run a 10.95-second 100m dash, so he can keep up. With Brock Bowers gone, Georgia’s pass-catching crew lacks the sort of game-changing talent that Texas has and that Texas’ secondary anyhow has the ability to contain.

For comparison’s stake, Mississippi State’s quarterback threw for 162 yards and had a passer rating of 40 fewer points against Texas’ secondary than he did against Georgia’s.

Texas’ Stronger Rush Attack

Georgia’s rush attack is rather inefficient, as measured by YPC, positioning it to lean heavily on its pass attack, which creates a negative outlook for its offense given the quality of Texas’ high-ranking secondary.

Conversely, the Longhorns are comfortable with running the ball more. They just ran for 177 yards on 5.9 YPC against an Oklahoma run defense that ranks significantly higher than Georgia’s.

Texas can thrive on the ground with its plethora of efficient running backs. Most recently, Quintrevion Wisner broke out for 118 rushing yards against the Sooners.

Run defense has repeatedly been a problem for Georgia, as evident in its near loss to Kentucky and its loss to Alabama.

Texas’ offense can be balanced because its deep rush attack is well-equipped to support its quarterback and wide receiver group.

The Takeaway

Whereas the Longhorns have held their opponents to 13 points or fewer, Georgia’s defense has shown severe struggles against both the run and the pass. The Longhorns are well-equipped to exploit those struggles because they boast a deep running back room and a lot of demonstrated ability at quarterback and wide receiver.

While the best counterpoint for Bulldogs backers will be that Georgia’s offense will pose a uniquely tough test for Texas’ defense, the extent to which the Longhorns have dominated defensively and the well-known qualities of its defenders justify extensive optimism.

Georgia’s rush attack has been inefficient, leading it to have to pass to a great extent. We know that Texas’ pass defense is justifiably ranked highly because we know about the NFL level of its stacked cornerback room, we’ve seen quarterbacks struggle more against it than against its other opponents, and we’ve seen its chemistry with its safety room.

One of the best pass defenses in the country will help limit a rather one-dimensional Bulldogs offense missing three key departed pass-catchers from last year, a Bulldogs offense that will fail to keep pace with Texas’ balanced, deep, and explosive offense.

NCAAF Pick: Texas +2 (-105) at Bovada

Texas +2 (-105)

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