Georgia vs. Texas SEC Championship Game Betting Pick: Texas Ready To Upset Georgia

The First Meeting

These two teams played each other on October 19 in Texas. Georgia won 30-15.

Georgia might seem appealing because it won in Texas. However, given the way in which Georgia won, location did not matter. As we saw when Kentucky physically overwhelmed Ole Miss in Mississippi, physical advantages persist regardless of location.

The Bulldogs were too physical for Texas, which is why many folks, after the game, were talking about how difficult it must be for the Longhorns to adjust to SEC football. SEC teams are notoriously more physical than teams in Texas’ previous conference, the Big 12.

My point here is that Georgia did not win because it has some kind of talent or matchup-related advantage over Texas, but because the game took place in October and Georgia happened to be Texas’ first real test in the SEC.

Texas’ Improved Physicality

We are now in December. Since that game in October, the Longhorns have become a substantially more physical team. They have grown to the point where we cannot simply expect what happened in October to repeat itself.

This growth, this improved physicality was evident in Texas’ win over Texas A&M last week. Rather than relying on trick plays or other forms of cuteness, the Longhorns asserted themselves physically in a way that they could not have done in October.

Improved Ground Game

The Longhorns, objectively speaking, do have a high-caliber offensive line, although its lack of physicality made it appear feeble against Georgia’s front. My point here is that the talent is (and has been) there. Texas is a Joe Moore Award semifinalist — this award is given to the nation’s top offensive line.

Because Texas has become much more physical, its offensive line is displaying greater productivity in alignment with its level of talent. When the Longhorns lost to Georgia, they almost had as many yards. They’ll have more yards this time because their rush attack has become more productive.

Whereas their running back, Quintrevion Wisner, is averaging five YPC on the season, he averaged 6.1 and 5.6 YPC in his last two games, respectively. He amassed 158 rushing yards against Kentucky and 186 against Texas A&M.

Georgia’s Vulnerable Run Defense

Without exhibiting the physical advantage that it did in October, Georgia’s defense will be exposed for what it is: a unit that has declined significantly relative to its quality in recent years.

Most recently, the Bulldogs allowed 260 rushing yards to Georgia Tech. Their run defense ranks middle-of-the-road overall.

Georgia’s Porous Pass Defense

They are even worse in pass defense largely because of their issues with pass coverage.

A lot of opposing wide receivers get lots of room to operate against Georgia’s secondary. These are not only Alabama’s wide receivers who thrive against the Bulldogs’ secondary, but even lower-caliber competition, like the offenses of Mississippi State and UMass, achieve numerous big plays against Georgia both on the ground and through the air.

In the offseason, the Bulldogs lost significant talent in their secondary as well as their defensive backs coach. They clearly haven’t recovered from these losses.

Texas’ Weapons

The Longhorns are stacked with pass-catchers.

It says everything that Silas Bolden, who partly due to his elite speed was Oregon State’s leading wide receiver last year before transferring to Texas, is one of the Longhorns’ lesser options.

With the likes of Isaiah Bond, as well, Texas has tremendous speed in its pass-catching group, which helps it achieve big plays at a relatively high rate. Efficient quarterback Quinn Ewers has the accuracy especially in the short and intermediate passing game to help his pass-catching weapons sustain drives.

Georgia Can’t Keep Pace

A lot of pressure will be on Georgia quarterback Carson Beck because Georgia’s rush attack is so inefficient. The Bulldogs rank toward the bottom in rushing yards per game.

Beck will face his toughest test of the season against Texas’ top-ranked pass defense, which features both one of the top pass rushes and one of the best secondaries. Intelligent scheming gets credit here. So does player talent. For example, Texas’s Jahdae Barron has been lauded by PFF as an elite-rated cornerback.

Beck has also been notoriously inconsistent, which is most apparent in his team’s tendency to start slow — last week, Georgia Tech led 17-0 at halftime — which will be problematic against a team that, with its elite pass defense, is tough to come from behind against and that, with its improved physicality, will not gift Georgia good field position like it did in October.

His wide receivers let him down with poor route-running and drops, but he also makes bad decisions, which is leading him to throw a lot of interceptions.

Takeaway

The rematch will play out differently because Texas has acclimated itself to SEC competition by becoming more physical. Georgia won’t bully Texas this time around, so it will simply be outmatched.

Texas has the improved ground game and pass-catching weapons to exploit Georgia’s weaknesses on defense. The Longhorns are too tough against the pass for Beck to have a decent game, yet Beck won’t be able to count on his rush attack for support.

NCAAF Pick: Texas -2.5 (-115) at BetOnline

Texas -2.5 (-115)

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