MLB Pick: Under 10 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Wednesday brings an unusually large lineup of 16 Major League Baseball betting matchups, due to a doubleheader between the Rangers and Athletics.
We have three best bets for Wednesday with our third and final selection coming in the altitude of Colorado, where our model likes a total with the Giants visiting the Rockies. Let’s delve into the MLB odds provided by the top sportsbooks for tonight’s games.
Check out our other MLB expert picks:
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, May 08, 2024 – 08:40 PM ET at Coors Field
We have yet to see the outlandish scoring in Coors Field that can be expected in the hotter summer months to come. With that in mind, we are betting on the hot Jordan Hicks to key an Under visiting Peter Lambert and the Rockies.
Great Conversion So Far
The Giants made the choice to convert Hicks from a reliever that consistently topped 100 MPH out of the bullpen his entire career into a starter this season. Well, that has looked like a genius move thus far with Hicks sporting a 1.89 ERA in seven starts. And he has worked 38 innings for an average of 5.4 innings per start, so he has obviously handled the extra workload of a starter well.
Granted, Jordan must now reserve more energy and cannot throw over 100 MPH out of the gate, but his average of 97.5 MPH will do just fine. And knowing that he can throw 100 MPH when necessary is a great luxury. Also, for someone with such high velocity, Hicks has an outstanding career groundball rate of 60.1%, and that rate is still excellent at 58.7% this first year as a starter.
Combining strikeouts and groundballs is a great formula for avoiding the effects of pitching at high altitude.
Not as Bad as ERA
Yes, it may take a little bit of courage to bet an Under with Lambert and his 5.66 ERA on the mound. But to be fair, Peter has a much better 4.09 xFIP that looks even better considering his home stadium. He has been unlucky with a .339 BABIP allowed and a 66.2% strand rate, so there is room for positive regression for the ERA.
Also consider that the Giants are struggling offensively, ranking 25th in the majors in runs scored at 3.67 per game and averaging just 2.29 runs on their current road trip. Those numbers do not seem very fluky considering San Francisco is 20th in baseball with a below-average wRC+ of 96.
The Pick
With Hicks having success as a starter and the perfect profile for Coors Field, and Lamber being better than his ERA, go Under in Colorado.
Predicted Score: Giants 5 – Rockies 3
MLB Pick: Under 10 (-120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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