Giants vs. Mariners MLB Best Bet: Scarcity of Scoring in Seattle
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LT Profits
- August 23, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We went a winning 2-1 on Wednesday as we enter Friday’s full slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups. As usual, we have three more best bets for today’s slate, featuring current MLB odds from top sportsbooks that we believe offer great value.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model fancies a total in the Emerald City on Friday with the Giants visiting the Mariners.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, August 23, 2024 – 10:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
We foresee a low-scoring game in Seattle and are this backing the Under when Luis Castillo and the Mariners host Hayden Birdsong and the Giants.
Still Going Strong
Luis Castillo took the loss last time out allowing four earned runs in 5.1 innings, but that snapped a streak of eight consecutive starts of allowing three earned runs or less. We like the veteran’s chances of bouncing back tonight against a suspect San Francisco offense.
Now 31 years old, Luis had a sub-par start to this season, but his recent surge has brought his number back up to his career norms. While he is only 10-12, that is because the Seattle offense has been nothing special either as he has a 3.51 ERA and 3.76 xFIP. This would mark the seventh straight season he has been sub-4.00 in both! He has also now raised his strikeout rate to over a batter per inning at 9.02/9.
He is facing a Giants’ offense ranked only 20th in wRC+ against right-handers at 94, a figure that drops a bit more to 91 on the road.
Lots of Strikeouts
The rookie Hayden Birdsong has made nine starts in his first taste of the Major Leagues, and he is 3-3 with a high 5.01 ERA. The news is not all bad though as his xFIP is noticeably lower at 4.15, and as often happens with a small sampling, the ERA is skewed by two bad starts.
The truth is that Hayden has allowed two runs or less in six of his nine starts and three runs in another, on the strength of his nice strikeout rate of 10.67/9. The youngster has already merited a nice overall Stuff+ of 109 with three of his four pitches at 114 or higher. Also, he has a nice groundball rate for a strikeout pitcher of 43.1%.
He is facing a struggling Seattle team that has lost eight of its last nine games while scoring three runs or less in seven of those losses.
The Pick
In a matchup of a veteran pitcher back in peak form, a rookie already showing nice potential and two scuttling offenses, bet the Under in Seattle on Friday.
Predicted Score: Giants 3 – Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-118) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
