Giants vs. Nationals MLB Best Bet: Washington To Capitalize in DC at Big Price
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LT Profits
- August 7, 2024
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We enter Wednesday’s 17-game slate of MLB betting matchups 19-11 in our last 30 plays including another winning 2-1 Sunday. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in our nation’s capital, where our model favors a side when the Giants visit the Nationals.
For additional betting insights, check out:
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 07, 2024 – 06:45 PM ET at at Nationals Park
Not as Great as Last Year
Blake Snell of the Giants is coming off a no-hitter, but we feel that has him a bit overvalued here in his follow-up start. We are betting on a very capable Jake Irvin of the Nationals as decided home underdogs in this spot.
To be fair, we are fans of Blake Snell, so fading him here is primarily due to this price that is almost undoubtedly inflated by the no-hitter. Also, he has made only 11 starts thus far this season due to injuries, and the no-hitter notwithstanding, his overall numbers are not yet at his Cy Young Award winning levels of last season.
He enters at 1-3 with the no-no being his first win of the year, with an uncharacteristic 4.20 ERA. He is still posting big strikeout totals at 11.44/9, but he is struggling with command with the walk rate at 3.81/9 and his groundball rate is down to 39.8% from 44.4% last season. So, while we have little doubt Blake will approach his Cy Young form as the season goes on, we are not so sure he should be this big a road favorite at this current time.
Seems Up for the Challenge
Jake Irvin may not be at a vintage Snell level, but he has taken some major strides in his second season in the big leagues. Much like the other young Washington starters, Irvin is basically getting on-the-job training at the Major League level, and he has accounted himself well despite an 8-9 record as he has a 3.56 ERA and 3.86 xFIP through 134 innings.
Jake is not a huge strikeout guy at 7.72/9, but he has a nice slider/cutter combination that has earned big Stuff+ ratings of 136 and 111 respectively. That has helped generate a 43.1% groundball rate to complement the moderate strikeout rate. Also, Irvin has sharply lowered his walk rate to 2.15/9 from 4.02/9 in his rookie season.
The Pick
In a nutshell, we do not think Snell should be this big of a road favorite against a pitcher seemingly coming into his own in his second season with both an ERA and xFIP in the 3.00s. Thus, take the Nationals to pull the upset in Washington.
Predicted Score: Nationals 4 – Giants 3
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+145) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
