Giants vs. Orioles MLB Best Bet: Birdsong to Fly Past Birds
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LT Profits
- September 18, 2024
MLB Pick: Giants ML (+152) at BetOnline
Wednesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in Baltimore in the Giants vs. Orioles matchup Wednesday.
Don’t forget to check out our other picks of the day:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Phillies vs. Brewers and Tigers vs. Royals.
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, September 18, 2024 – 06:35 PM ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
We are looking for an upset in Baltimore this Wednesday as we are backing Hayden Birdsong and the underdog Giants to play spoilers visiting Dean Kremer and the Orioles.
Has the Right Stuff
The Giants prevailed 10-0 in the series opener here last night, and we like the prospects of Birdsong pitching them to a second straight upset. Yes, the rookie has been erratic while going 3-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 4.43 xFIP in 13 starts. However, he allowed only two hits in five scoreless innings last Thursday, marking the fourth time in his last five starts that he allowed two runs or less.
And Hayden certainly has the right stuff to be a successful Major League pitcher. He has a 4-pitch arsenal consisting of a 95.4 MPH fastball and three pitches all rated extremely high on Stuff+ in his slider (120), cutter (115) and change-up (155). That arsenal has led to a nice strikeout rate of 10.74/9 and a swinging strikeout rate of 11.6% in his first taste of the big leagues.
One caveat here is that the Giants are monitoring the youngster’s innings, but that is not necessarily a bad thing considering the San Francisco bullpen ranks fourth in the majors in xFIP at 3.75.
Kremer Back to Reality
The Orioles have lost three straight series and are on the verge of a fourth after last night’s loss, dropping them four games behind the Yankees in the AL East. And we are not big fans of Kremer, who has a losing 7-9 record while pitching for a team that is 17 games over .500. He also sports a 4.10 ERA and 4.41 xFIP.
Dean is coming off a season where he went 13-5 last year, but that record was undeserved given his 4.12 ERA and 4.34 xFIP. So, he has basically been pitching at the same level this year without the good luck he had last season. That is except for his walks, as that rate has climbed to 3.72/9 from 2.87/9. He also scores poorly on Stuff+ with an overall rating of 87 and not a single pitch above the 100 average.
While we get that the Orioles still have division title hopes while the Giants are playing out the string, we cannot pass up this price considering we rate Birdsong as the better pitcher. Bet the Giants as nice underdogs.
Predicted Score: Giants 5 – Orioles 4
MLB Pick: Giants ML (+152) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
