Grand Canyon vs. Maryland 2025 March Madness First Round Best Bet

One problem: the No. 4 Maryland Terrapins (25-8 SU, 17-14 ATS). This isn’t some namby-pamby at-large team coming in with their heads hung low after a disappointing campaign. These Terps are talented, they’re motivated, and they’re 10.5-point favorites on the March Madness odds board at Heritage as we go to press.

You’d think that would be enough to keep bettors away from Grand Canyon, but no, the early consensus numbers at BMR show 67% support for the Antelopes at +10.5, bumping all the way up to 90% as +460 moneyline underdogs at Heritage.

Is this early money indeed sharp? Maybe – if it’s on the spread. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and get to the real story behind Friday’s college basketball lines.

Can Grand Canyon Beat Maryland?

I don’t see why not. The Western Athletic Conference is one of the better low majors in Division I, ranking No. 13 on this year’s Simple Rating System charts at Sports Reference. And the Antelopes were their best team by a fair margin at plus-5.8 SRS.

It’s a high-variance situation, though. Grand Canyon hasn’t really been tested all that much in 2024-25; their non-conference strength of schedule ranked No. 271 according to Ken Pomeroy, with just two games as underdogs on the closing NCAAB odds:

• Nov. 26: GCU 78, Stanford 71 (GCU +1)
• Dec. 14: GCU 68, Georgia 73 (GCU +6.5)

At least the Antelopes covered the spread both times. They haven’t had much success on that front – maybe because everyone saw what Grand Canyon did to Saint Mary’s at last year’s Big Dance. But there’s a bigger reason why we think GCU has some ATS betting value this Friday, and I’m getting to it, one moment, please.

Why Not Bet The Moneyline?

Because everyone else is. Okay, 90% isn’t everyone, but it’s close, and that gives online sportsbooks incentive to move their betting lines in the other direction. If you take those ML odds at Heritage for Friday’s matchup (+460 for GCU, –610 for Maryland) and run them through the always-shining BMR Spread Moneyline Calculator, you get an equivalent spread of Grand Canyon +9.5 (+105.5) out the other side.

Granted, we’re paying -108 vigorish to put the Lopes in our March Madness picks at +10.5. But the difference in value between +9.5 and +10.5 is something like 25-30 cents. We’re only spending 13.5 cents to buy that full point. Shop smart.

The Pick

Okay, here’s the man we’ve all been waiting for: Tyon Grant-Foster. This is Year Two at Grand Canyon for the 6-foot-7 swingman, already age 25 after two seasons of JUCO and brief stops at Kansas and DePaul. Grant-Foster was WAC Player of the Year for 2024, but made just 16 starts in 2024-25 after sitting out the last month with ankle problems.

He’s back, ladies and germs. Grant-Foster lit up the WAC Tournament, and Grand Canyon went 3-0 SU and ATS en route to the title. They’ll have their hands full with Maryland (plus-23.52 SRS), and the advanced statistics at KenPom project the Terps as something closer to 13.5-point faves on neutral ground, so we’re making this a small wager for protection, but we believe the yearlong stats sell GCU short now that Grant-Foster has returned. Bet accordingly.

NCAAB Pick: Grand Canyon +10.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Grand Canyon +10.5 (-108)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.