Grizzlies vs. Nuggets NBA Best Bets: Is the Total Too High?

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies lost 141-125 at home against the Timberwolves on Thursday night, a high-scoring clash between teams fighting to avoid the play-in tournament.

Ja Morant led the charge for Memphis with 36 points and debuted a new celebration—pretending to toss a grenade into the crowd after drilling a 3-pointer. Desmond Bane added 28 points and Jaren Jackson Jr. contributed 23, but the Grizzlies saw their three-game winning streak come to an end.

The result leaves the Timberwolves, Warriors, and Grizzlies all tied with identical 47-33 records, jostling for the sixth through eighth seeds in the Western Conference.

Memphis had shown renewed energy under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo during its recent win streak, putting the team in position to potentially avoid the play-in. However, Thursday’s loss may prove costly. Despite shooting 18-of-36 from 3-point range, Memphis was undone by 15 turnovers that led to 23 points for Minnesota.

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic recorded his 32nd triple-double of the season—posting 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists—to lead the Denver Nuggets past the Sacramento Kings 124-116 on Wednesday night. It was Denver’s first game since head coach Michael Malone was fired.

Christian Braun poured in 25 points, while Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. each added 21 as the Nuggets snapped a four-game losing streak and completed a season sweep of Sacramento.

Jamal Murray missed his sixth straight game with a right hamstring injury, and it remains unclear if he’ll return before the playoffs. In the meantime, Denver continues to rely on Russell Westbrook and Jalen Pickett in the backcourt.

The Nuggets (48-32) are now tied with the Clippers for the No. 4 seed in the West with two games remaining in the regular season.

Malone, the franchise’s all-time winningest coach who led the Nuggets to their lone NBA Championship in 2023, was fired on Tuesday along with general manager Calvin Booth. Assistant coach David Adelman is serving as interim head coach.

Denver controlled much of the game, building a 16-point lead before Sacramento mounted a late push to cut the deficit to 113-108 with just over two minutes left. Pickett responded with a mid-range jumper, and Jokic hit a pair of free throws to help close out the win.

The Nuggets ended the first half on a 13-5 run, then opened the third quarter with an 18-10 burst to maintain their edge. Braun (16), Porter (14), Gordon (14), and Jokic (10) combined for 54 of Denver’s 66 points in the first half.

Key Matchups

The Western Conference playoff race is heating up, and this game carries major seeding implications. The battle between Denver’s interior efficiency and Memphis’ defensive versatility could ultimately decide who controls the tempo.

Ja Morant vs. Denver’s Defense

Morant lit up the Timberwolves for 36 points, showcasing his explosiveness. The star point guard has been the engine behind Memphis’ offense, and Denver will need to contain his drives and limit his transition chances. If Morant gets downhill early, Denver could find themselves scrambling to contain his pace and creativity.

Nikola Jokic vs. Memphis Interior

Jokic recorded his 32nd triple-double of the season against the Kings, finishing with 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists. His ability to control the tempo and dissect defenses from the high post makes him a matchup nightmare. Memphis has struggled to defend elite bigs all season, and with Jokic’s efficiency and passing touch, Denver has a major edge in the halfcourt.

Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Denver’s Defensive Pressure

Bane (28 points) and Jackson Jr. (23 points) both played well against Minnesota, but Memphis’ 15 turnovers—converted into 23 points by the Timberwolves—proved costly. If Denver can replicate that defensive pressure and force Memphis into similar mistakes, the Nuggets can tilt the game in their favor.

3-Point Shooting and Turnovers

Memphis hit 18-of-36 from beyond the arc against Minnesota, but their carelessness with the ball erased that advantage. The Nuggets, by contrast, have been opportunistic and efficient. If Denver stays disciplined and minimizes mistakes, they’ll be able to capitalize on Memphis’ turnover issues.

The Pick

The Nuggets’ stability on offense, anchored by Jokic’s consistent triple-double production, gives them a clear advantage against a Memphis squad that remains vulnerable defensively and turnover-prone under pressure.

Morant and Bane will keep the Grizzlies competitive for stretches, especially if the outside shots keep falling, but Denver’s interior presence and ball control will prove decisive. The total is too high, Memphis is playing in the second game of a back-to-back and Denver will be without Murray so I like the Under.

NBA Pick: Under 242.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 242.5 (-110)

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