MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+144) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are 11-4 in our last 15 plays after a 3-0 Wednesday, and we are back with three plays for a 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Friday that we feel offer the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets from top sportsbooks are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the City of Brotherly Love in the Guardians vs. Phillies matchup on Friday.
If you’re looking for additional MLB value picks:
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, July 26, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
In a battle of two teams with the best record in each league, we are backing Ben Lively and the underdog Guardians as a perceived overlay visiting Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies.
Great Work in a Pinch
The Guardians are tied with the Orioles for the best record in the American League at 61-41, and Lively has been a surprising contributor to that success. Not much was expected of him, but Cleveland has had to rely on Lively more than planned due to injuries in the rotation, and he has mostly delivered.
Ben Lively enters this contest at 8-6 and may deserve better than that with his 3.57 ERA. Ben has turned out to be more reliable than some aces around the league, as he has allowed three runs or less in 16 of his 18 starts, and he allowed a reasonable four runs in one of the two non-quality starts.
And just like the rest of the rotation, he benefits from a great Cleveland bullpen that leads the Major Leagues in both ERA (2.50) and xFIP (3.47).
Too Much Favoritism?
The Phillies have the best record in the majors at 64-38, but we still feel that are overpriced here against another first-place team while not holding a big pitching advantage. That is not a knock against Sanchez, who comes in at 7-5 with an outstanding 2.97 ERA and 3.15 xFIP.
As great as those frontline numbers are though, Cristopher Sanchez has only a decent K/BB ratio of 7.35/2.31 per nine innings with a good but not great swinging strike rate of 10.7%. He also has a high hard-contact rate of 31.1%, and even his overall Stiff+ is nothing special at 92 with no pitch rated higher than 97.
The southpaw now faces a Cleveland offense with a nice wRC+ of 115 against left-handers.
The Pick
The bottom line here is Sanchez’s underlying metrics are not as good as his sub-3.00 ERA, while Lively has surprisingly been one of the most consistent starters in the league. Add in a great bullpen and good offense against lefties, and bet the Guardians to pull the upset on Friday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+144) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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