Guardians vs. Royals MLB Best Bet: Cleveland To Remain Lively in KC
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LT Profits
- September 4, 2024
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+123) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are 14-7 in our last 21 plays entering Wednesday’s 15-game card of MLB betting matchups. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in Kansas City in the Guardians vs. Royals matchup on Wednesday.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, September 04, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
Ever since pulling into a first-place tie with the Guardians atop the AL Central last week, the Royals have lost seven straight games to drop to third place, 5.5 games back. We are banking on those woes to continue Wednesday with Seth Lugo taking on Ben Lively.
Overachieving
We are always dubious of pitchers that show sudden improvement at an advanced age out of nowhere, yet here we are in September and the 34-year-old Seth Lugo is having a career year. He comes in at 14-8 while ranking 10th in the Major Leagues with a 3.12 ERA. And yet, we are still non-believers because his underlying metrics have not greatly improved from previous seasons.
In fact, his strikeout rate of 7.79/9 is down from 8.61/9 last season, and he still has a very ordinary soft/hard contact ratio of 14.9% / 31.2%. Even his good groundball rate of 44.4% is slightly down from 45.2% last year. All of which has led to a noticeably higher 3.91 xFIP.
Then again, there may be some regression in progress as Seth has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last seven starts.
More Consistent
While the Royals are ice-cold, the Guardians have won five of their six games since Kansas City tied them in the standings and now own a 4.5-game lead over the second place Twins. They hope to keep things going with Ben Lively, who enters at 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA and 4.57 xFIP. But while he has a higher ERA and xFIP than Lugo, Ben has easily been the more consistent starter this season.
To best illustrate this, while Lugo has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last seven starts as mentioned, Lively has done that four times all year in 24 total starts! Not only that, but he allowed exactly four earned runs twice, meaning he has allowed more than four just twice in those 24 outings.
And let us not forget that he is supported by probably the best bullpen in baseball, as that Cleveland unit leads the majors in ERA (2.80) while ranking third in xFIP (3.71).
The Pick
These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and we trust Lively while remaining suspect of Lugo’s career year. Bet the Guardians as nice road underdogs in Kansas City.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Royals 3
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+123) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
