Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 Best Bets: Will the Bronx Bombers Secure a Home Victory?

The ALCS kicks off Monday night, where we see Carlos Rodon and the Yankees prevailing in a low-scoring affair when hosting Alex Cobb and the Guardians.

Strong Finish

Carlos Rodon has been injury plagued for several years and was never fully healthy after signing a huge contract to join the Yankees last season, going 3-8 with an ugly 6.85 ERA and 5.30 xFIP. However, he has remained healthy for a change this year with much better results.

In fact, he posted a career-high in wins while going 16-9, and while his 3.96 ERA and 4.09 xFIP were not eye-popping, he did have a very good strikeout rate of 10.03/9. It helped that his velocity was back to peak levels at 95.4 MPH, garnering a 114 rating on Stuff+, but Carlos complimented his fastball nicely with one of the nastiest sliders in the game, rated 144!

Furthermore, the southpaw closed the season strongly, allowing two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. Granted, things did not go as well in his playoff start against the Royals allowing four runs in 3.2 innings. But even there, he had seven strikeouts and not a single walk. Also, Rodon has the support of a Yankees bullpen that has been literally perfect this post-season, not allowing a single earned run in 15.2 innings.

He is facing a Cleveland lineup that he has not faced during his two years with the Yankees, an unfamiliarity that usually favors the pitcher. And the Guardians easily have the lowest wRC+ offensively during these playoffs of the four teams remaining at only 80, or 20% below average.

Lots of Grounders

The veteran right-hander Alex Cobb did not make his first start this year until August 9th and ended up making just three starts for the season. Now 37 years old, he abandoned the traditional fastball completely, and with good reason as he has a heavy 93.8 MPH sinker to go along with a fine knuckle-curve rated 130 on Stuff+ and a good splitter rated 123.

The results were decent for Alex over those three starts, albeit covering just 16.1 innings, as he posted a 2.76 ERA and 3.70 xFIP. He never was a big strikeout guy and that continued, with that rate at just 5.51/9. However, he offset that with a good walk rate of 1.65/9 and an excellent groundball rate of 61.2%. That latter figure is not surprising considering all three of his primary pitches have nice downward movement.

One issue with Cobb may be stamina, but that is not as much of a concern considering the great Cleveland bullpen. That unit led the Major Leagues in ERA during the regular season at 2.57 and ranked second in xFIP at 3.67. The pen is also second in xFIP during the playoffs (behind the Yankees) at 3.45.

Betting the Side

Both teams here have capable starters and great bullpens, but the difference comes in the offensive splits. The Yankees led the majors in wRC+ against right-handers during the season at 120, and they have a big edge over Cleveland in the post-season at 105. This has us betting on the Bronx Bombers as home favorites in Game 1.

Betting the Total

While we expect the Yankees to prevail, we do not expect an offensive explosion provided Cobb is inducing groundballs as usual, and if the Guardians’ bullpen continues to perform well. At the same time, we do not expect Cleveland to do too much against Rodon and the Yankees’ pen, so we are backing the Under on Monday.

Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Guardians 2

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-155) at BetOnline

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Under 7.5 (-113)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.