Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 2 Best Bet: Cleveland Looks to Even the Series

Gerrit Cole Is Overrated 

New York starts Gerrit Cole today. While nobody would deny that Cole is a good pitcher, Cole being a good pitcher is no reason to bet the Yankees today, because the odds imply that he is in fact a very good pitcher.

Betting on baseball is a game of prices, and my point is that the Cole-led Yankees are tremendously over-priced today.

As an oddsmaker, I would only be fine with lining the Yankees at -170 because I know that bettors would be willing to invest in them because of Cole’s reputation.

Metrics suggest that there is a significant disparity, however, between Cole’s reputation and the reality of how good he still is.

They suggest, indeed, that Cole has declined in recent years. These metrics, along with the Cleveland lineup and Cleveland starting pitcher’s positive outlook today justify a form of investment in the Guardians.

Looking at the Metrics 

The basic point to make about metrics is that ERA, the surface-level statistic that is most commonly seen and looked at in order to assess how pitchers are performing, is superficial. ERA does not satisfyingly reflect the reality of how well or poorly pitchers are performing.

Let’s consider one metric, xFIP. FIP is like ERA but factors out fielding, and xFIP is like FIP but uses projected instead of actual home run rate.

This metric emphasizes what a pitcher can control. A pitcher can’t control whether his fielders play defense well or poorly, for example.

Cole’s yearly xFIP suggests that he is declining to the point where his xFIP in this regular season was 3.99, up from 3.60 last year. His FIP was 3.69 this regular season, up from 3.16 last year.

Guardians Batters vs. Cole 

We can also look at matters more simply: Guardians batters own a promising overall track record against Cole. In 127 at-bats, they slug a collective .457 against him.

Look out, especially for Josh Naylor and Jose Ramirez, who slug .680 and .676 against him, respectively.

Location, Location, Location

Oddsmakers offer more respect to the home team, but Cleveland has additional value today because today’s game presents a fairly rare instance where this automatic respect for the home team is invalid.

The pressure of pitching in front of the New Yorkers with their high expectations might be affecting Cole. His struggles at home are becoming a trend.

In Cole’s last two home postseason starts he has allowed nine earned runs in ten innings. 

Tanner Bibee, who starts for Cleveland today, has not shown the extent of struggles on the road that Cole is exhibiting at home.

Bibee’s road ERA this season is a solid 2.76, while his underlying metrics indicate that he is only marginally worse on the road than at home, well within the range of being coincidental.

More on Bibee

Bibee throws primarily four different pitches: these are, in descending order of frequency, a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball.

His fastball is his favorite pitch. It boasts strong velocity and good spin, making it hard for batters to keep up with and hard to keep track of.

Typically, he likes to elevate it, giving it the appearance of rising action, which induces batters to swing underneath it.

He’ll play this pitch well off his slider, which he’s likelier to bury, and off his changeup and curveball, which create a drastic change of pace relative especially to his fastball.

Largely due to Bibee’s strong pitching, his team has thrived in his games against postseason teams.

The Guardians are 2-0 in the postseason when Bibee pitches. Dating to July in the regular season, they are 7-3 against postseason teams when he starts.

Struggling Aaron Judge

New York’s best slugger is struggling in postseason action. His BA is .133 in this month, and his slugging rate is .200 in October.

Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton have been the motor behind what New York’s lineup has accomplished in October, but Soto, who thrived last night, is wildly inconsistent, and Stanton, who homered last night, rarely hits home runs in back-to-back nights.

Hence, the New York offense’s lowest-scoring outputs have come after a strong performance from Soto or after a game in which Stanton hits a home run.

Betting Recommendation

I like Bibee to outperform Cole. Cleveland can get two or three runs off Cole while Bibee is primed to keep New York’s lineup in check.

Considering the above starting pitcher analysis, it feels to me that we are getting a great price for needing the Guardians to remain no worse than even with the Yankees through five innings.

MLB Pick: First Five Innings Guardians +.5 (-105) at Bovada

First Five Innings Guardians +.5 (-105)

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