Top NCAAF Pick: Louisville-USC Over 57½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
This year’s Holiday Bowl features a former Heisman Trophy winner and a team with 10 wins, leaving our handicapper expecting a scoreboard buster in San Diego. Let’s dive into this Bowl Season odds and set our best strategies to play at the main offshore sportsbooks.
Louisville Cardinals vs. USC Trojans
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Petco Park
Caleb Williams first said his availability in the Holiday Bowl would be “a game-time decision.” Turns out that 24 days prior to the matchup between USC and Louisville was close enough to game time for Williams to opt out of suiting up for the Trojans.
Trojans, Cards Meet for 1st Time
Not that Williams’ decision had much effect on the numbers at the main sportsbooks. If anything, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner’s absence has resulted in a slight bump towards USC. Louisville opened -8 and is now -7½ across the board, the total running 57½-58.
Louisville and USC are not only meeting for the first time, it’s a rare interconference matchup for both schools. It has been 13 years since the Cardinals played a Pac-12 team, meaning it was called the Pac-10 when Louisville lost to Oregon State in Corvallis in 2010.
Those two teams met in Louisville five years before that, the Cardinals beating Oregon State in 2005. It had been nine years then since the Cardinals played a Pac-10 team.
It has been nine years since USC played an ACC team, swapping home-&-home games with Boston College in 2013-14. The Trojans’ last bowl game against an ACC team came in the 2012 Sun Bowl, a loss to Georgia Tech as TD chalk.
Will Moss Shine or Flop in Williams’ Shoes?
Currently the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the oddsmakers were already planning on Williams not taking any snaps in the bowl matchup with the Cardinals. It was a very disappointing end to the season for Williams and the Trojans, and risking a potential injury in what amounts to a meaningless bowl game that was not going to happen.
Southern Cal dropped its last three, and five of the last six after beginning the season 6-0, and was a bettor’s nightmare by failing to cover eight of the last nine. Fading the Trojans and playing the ‘over’ (9-3 O/U) were the only ways to make money on USC games.
Williams and the Trojan offense were definitely part of the reason why ‘over’ bettors returned to the pay window so frequently. The Trojans ranked second in the Pac-12 in scoring (41.8 ppg) and total offense (469.7 ypg), so sophomore back Miller Moss has been handed the keys to a more than adequate offense.
The Trojan defense was also responsible for the ‘over’ winners. Only Stanford allowed more points than USC in the Pac-12, and the Trojans ranked 10th in the league allowing 438.8 YPG.
Plummer Has Seen USC Defense Before
Despite reaching the 10-win plateau, it was also a disappointing close to the campaign for Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals. They still had some hope of sneaking into the College Football Playoffs heading into the regular season finale, but a loss to Bluegrass State rival Kentucky ended that dream.
Louisville closed as a slight favorite on the odds for the ACC Championship against Florida State, and might have gained a little traction for a New Year’s Six invite with a win. But the Cardinals were absolutely stuffed by the Seminoles’ defense in a 16-6 loss.
The loss to Florida State marked the third straight time Louisville failed to cover as the favorite, dropping the Cardinals to 6-6-1 ATS on the season. They were also level on the totals board (6-6-1 O/U/P).
Jack Plummer and the Louisville offense enjoyed life overall before the Seminoles shut them down. The senior transfer from Cal via Purdue threw for more than 3,600 yards and 21 scores, but was also sacked 29 times.
Plummer and the Cardinals will be facing a USC team that was in the middle of the Pac-12 pack with 27 sacks. While playing for Cal in 2022, Plummer threw for more than 400 yards and 3 TD in a loss to the Trojans at the old LA Coliseum.
Trojans Making 55th Bowl Trip
Louisville is playing in its 26th bowl game, splitting the previous 25 down the middle with 12 wins, 12 losses and a tie. It’s the third consecutive year for the Cardinals to go bowling after beating Cincinnati 24-7 in the Fenway Bowl as short chalk a year ago.
Southern Cal lost a 46-45 thriller to Tulane in the final seconds of last year’s Cotton Bowl. That was their first bowl game since the 2019 Holiday Bowl, a 49-24 loss to Iowa, and this is the Trojans’ 55th bowl game.
The Pick
With the game being played in San Diego, there shouldn’t be any trouble from Mother Nature, though that’s worth checking before going to the window.
The Holiday Bowl has a history of lopsided scores, with 11 of the last 15 decided by 10+ points. That might favor Louisville on the chalk line, but the best college football pick is to play the final going past the mark.
NCAAF Pick: Louisville-USC Over 57½ (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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